第四部分：为了人类
English: There is something special—far more rewarding than money—about working with an epic team to make breakthroughs.
中文： 与一个史诗般的团队合作取得突破有一些特别的东西——远比金钱更有回报。
BUILDING OUR FUTURE
建设我们的未来
English: I can't emphasize this enough: As long as we push hard and are not complacent, the future is going to be great.
中文： 我再怎么强调也不为过：只要我们努力推进而不自满，未来将会是美好的。
Companies Are Philanthropy
公司就是慈善
English: If you care about the reality of goodness instead of the perception of it, philanthropy is extremely difficult. If philanthropy is acting from a love of humanity—my companies are philanthropy.
中文： 如果你关心善良的实质而不是表象，慈善是极其困难的。如果慈善是出于对人类的热爱而行动——我的公司就是慈善。
English: Q: What do you say to people who criticize you for not "having your name on a hospital wing" or making other nonprofit donations?
中文： 问：你如何回应那些批评你没有"在医院侧楼留下你的名字"或进行其他非营利捐赠的人？
English: I do have a small foundation. I am giving some money away. But generally, if there's a way to fix something within the market system, building a company is the better way to do it. Sometimes there isn't or there are complications to it.
中文： 我确实有一个小基金会。我在捐出一些钱。但一般来说，如果有一种方法可以在市场体系内解决问题，建立公司是更好的方式。有时没有，或者有并发症。
English: If it's possible to solve a problem with a profitable venture then that's the best thing to do. In the grand scheme of things, there are a few failures in the market that have to be addressed with a nonprofit. There are some, but not many.
中文： 如果有可能通过盈利企业解决问题，那是最好的做法。从大局来看，市场中有一些失败必须通过非营利组织来解决。有一些，但不多。
English: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, and the Boring Company are philanthropy. SpaceX is trying to ensure the long-term survival of humanity as a multiple-planet species. We also provide global internet through Starlink. That is love of humanity. Tesla is accelerating sustainable energy. This is a love-based mission. Neuralink is trying to help solve brain injuries and the existential risk of AI. That is love of humanity. The Boring Company is trying to save people's time by solving traffic, which is hell for most people. That is also love of humanity.
中文： SpaceX、特斯拉、Neuralink 和无聊公司都是慈善。SpaceX 正试图确保人类作为多行星物种的长期生存。我们还通过星链提供全球互联网。那是对人类的爱。特斯拉正在加速可持续能源。这是一个基于爱的使命。Neuralink 正试图帮助解决脑损伤和 AI 的生存风险。那是对人类的爱。无聊公司正试图通过解决交通来节省人们的时间，这对大多数人来说是地狱。那也是对人类的爱。
English: My fundamental intent is to improve the probability of the future being good. SpaceX and Tesla will do more good for humanity than anything I could do with philanthropy. It is difficult to give away money effectively if you care about the money actually doing good, not merely having the perception of doing good.
中文： 我的根本意图是提高未来变好的概率。SpaceX 和特斯拉将为人类做更多好事，比我用慈善做的任何事情都多。如果你关心钱实际上做好事，而不仅仅是有做好事的表象，那么有效地捐钱是困难的。
English: Tesla sells twice as many electric vehicles as the rest of electric car makers in the United States combined. Tesla has done more to help the environment than all other companies combined. Therefore, it would be fair to say as a leader of that company I've done more for the environment than any other single human on Earth. I care about the reality of goodness, not the perception of it.
中文： 特斯拉销售的电动汽车是美国其他电动汽车制造商总和的两倍。特斯拉为帮助环境所做的贡献比所有其他公司的总和还要多。因此，公平地说，作为那家公司的领导者，我为环境所做的贡献比地球上任何其他人多。我关心善良的实质，而不是表象。
English: What I see all over the place is people who care about looking good while doing evil. Fuck them.
中文： 我到处看到的是那些关心在做恶事时看起来很好的人。去他们的。
English: I care about reality. Perception be damned.
中文： 我关心实质。表象见鬼去吧。
Companies Create Wealth for All
公司为所有人创造财富
English: I don't disrupt something for the sake of disrupting it. My focus is making a product that improves quality of life for people.
中文： 我不会为了颠覆而颠覆。我的重点是制造改善人们生活质量的产品。
English: If the output is more valuable than the inputs, that creates a profit. Profit shows you have a useful company. But in a high-growth scenario, you need a lot more inputs for future output, so for a while you have negative cash flow and lack of profitability, which we had early on at Tesla. In the long term, of course, that has to be fixed. There can't be a negative cash flow in the long term.
中文： 如果产出比投入更有价值，那就会产生利润。利润表明你有一家有用的公司。但在高增长情景下，你需要更多投入来获得未来产出，所以一段时间内你有负现金流和缺乏盈利能力，我们在特斯拉早期就是这样。从长远来看，当然，那必须得到纠正。长期内不能有负现金流。
English: If you create a company that produces products and services better than what existed before, wealth is created. If you have some ownership in that company, wealth accrues to you. Doing good work gives you the right to allocate more capital.
中文： 如果你创建一家生产比以前更好的产品和服务的公司，财富就创造了。如果你在那家公司有一些所有权，财富就会累积给你。做好工作给你分配更多资本的权利。
English: Sometimes people equate wealth with consumption, but they're obviously not the same thing. Consumption is fun, but capital allocation is a job.
中文： 有时人们将财富与消费等同起来，但它们显然不是同一件事。消费很有趣，但资本分配是一项工作。
English: If people want to get upset about something, excess consumption is more reasonable than being upset about someone having a high net worth.
中文： 如果人们想对某事感到不安，过度消费比因某人拥有高净值而感到不安更合理。
English: Warren Buffett has a high net worth because he's doing a useful job allocating capital for the economy. He's very skilled at it, and he should probably keep doing it. But he is not engaged in insane, conspicuous consumption.
中文： 沃伦·巴菲特拥有高净值，因为他正在为经济分配资本做有用的工作。他非常擅长这个，他应该继续这样做。但他没有参与疯狂的、炫耀性的消费。
English: Warren Buffett sits there and reads all these super boring annual reports. Does anybody want that job? He is constantly reading tedious annual reports of companies, including the minutiae of accounting and deciding whether to allocate capital into Coke or Pepsi. I don't want that job.
中文： 沃伦·巴菲特坐在那里阅读所有这些超级无聊的年度报告。有人想要那份工作吗？他不断阅读公司的乏味年度报告，包括会计细节，并决定是否将资本分配到可口可乐或百事可乐。我不想要那份工作。
English: I'm not claiming I have no money. But when people hear a big number for my net worth, they think I have that much cash, and I'm sitting on the cash doing nothing, hoarding resources. No, that value is the stock of these companies. Net worth just calculates my ownership of these companies, if you add them up. It's not as though I've got billions of dollars sitting in a bank account.
中文： 我不是说我没有钱。但当人们听到我的净值是一个大数字时，他们认为我有那么多现金，我坐在现金上无所事事，囤积资源。不，那个价值是这些公司的股票。净值只是计算我对这些公司的所有权，如果你把它们加起来。不是好像我有数十亿美元坐在银行账户里。
English: Just as my money was the first into Tesla, it will be the last out.
中文： 就像我的钱是最早进入特斯拉的，它也将是最后出来的。
English: The alternative to keeping the stock would be to say, "Okay, let's give the stock to the government or someone else." Then the government would control the companies and be running things.
中文： 保留股票的替代方案是说，"好吧，让我们把股票给政府或其他人。"然后政府将控制公司并管理事情。
English: A lot of the push for higher government involvement or expropriation of assets to the government is from politicians. What they are saying is those resources shouldn't be in control of individuals who built them, but instead should be under government control. They're basically saying they want control of the assets.
中文： 很多推动更高政府参与或征用资产给政府的是来自政客。他们说的是那些资源不应该由建造它们的个人控制，而应该在政府控制下。他们基本上说他们想要控制资产。
English: I think the profit motive is good if the rules of an industry are properly set up. There's nothing wrong with profit. Profit just means people are paying you more for whatever you're creating than you're spending to create it. That's a good thing. If that's not the case, you'll soon be out of business, and rightfully so, because you're not adding enough value.
中文： 我认为如果一个行业的规则设置得当，利润动机是好的。利润没有错。利润只是意味着人们为你创造的东西支付的比你创造它花费的更多。那是好事。如果不是这样，你很快就会倒闭，这是应该的，因为你没有增加足够的价值。
English: A few people do bad things to achieve profit, but that's quite unusual, because the rules are mostly set up correctly. Not perfect, but mostly correct.
中文： 少数人做坏事来实现利润，但这很不寻常，因为规则大部分设置正确。不完美，但大部分正确。
English: It is insanely hard to build and ship useful products to a large number of people. There's a hell of a difference between a company that has shipped a product and one that hasn't. It's night and day. Once you ship products, is the value of the output worth more than the cost of the inputs? Again insanely difficult, especially with hardware.
中文： 向大量人建造和运输有用的产品是疯狂困难的。已经运输产品的公司和没有运输产品的公司之间有地狱般的差异。那是天壤之别。一旦你运输产品，产出的价值是否比投入的成本更有价值？再次疯狂困难，特别是对于硬件。
English: If you create great products and services that create wealth, that should be applauded. You increased the standard of living of the country and perhaps of the world.
中文： 如果你创造创造财富的伟大产品和服务，那应该受到鼓掌。你提高了国家的生活水平，也许还有世界的生活水平。
Companies to Start
要创办的公司
English: Work on things that you find interesting, fulfilling, and that contribute some good to the rest of society.
中文： 从事你觉得有趣、充实，并对社会其他部分有所贡献的事情。
English: Q: What are some areas you see where people could build important new technology?
中文： 问：你看到哪些领域人们可以建造重要的新技术？
English: For five years people asked me where I saw opportunities and I'd say "tunneling." But nobody did anything. It was initially a joke, but we created the Boring Company and did a test tunnel in LA. People still didn't believe us. Then we did our first operational tunnel in Vegas.
中文： 五年来人们问我哪里有机会，我会说"隧道挖掘"。但没有人做任何事情。最初是个笑话，但我们创建了无聊公司，并在洛杉矶做了一个测试隧道。人们仍然不相信我们。然后我们在拉斯维加斯做了第一个运营隧道。
English: There are still tremendous opportunities in tunneling. The world needs tunnels. All major cities have traffic, and tunnels can massively improve people's quality of life by making it easy to travel from one place to another. They can be further expanded to long-distance travel. If you draw a vacuum on the tunnel, you can go extremely fast. Faster than a plane or high-speed rail. I'd still recommend someone—please—start a tunneling company.
中文： 隧道挖掘仍然有巨大机会。世界需要隧道。所有主要城市都有交通，隧道可以通过使从一个地方到另一个地方的旅行变得容易来大幅改善人们的生活质量。它们可以进一步扩展到长途旅行。如果你在隧道中抽真空，你可以走得非常快。比飞机或高铁还快。我仍然推荐某人——请——创办一家隧道挖掘公司。
English: Another company to start would be anything to do with genetics. If you can solve genetic diseases, you can prevent dementia or Alzheimer's with genetic reprogramming. That would be wonderful.
中文： 另一家要创办的公司将是任何与遗传学有关的事情。如果你能解决遗传疾病，你可以通过遗传重编程预防痴呆症或阿尔茨海默病。那将是很好的。
English: Synthetic RNA is revolutionary in medicine. Most people are not aware just how much of a revolution this is. This is like medicine going from analog to digital.
中文： 合成 RNA 在医学上是革命性的。大多数人没有意识到这是多大的革命。这就像医学从模拟走向数字。
English: RNA (ribonucleic acid) or MRNA (messenger RNA) are basically synthetic viruses. I think people don't appreciate what's going on—this is the digitization of medicine. You can create an RNA or DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) sequence like a computer program and encapsulate it in a lipid shell, so it looks like a tasty treat for your cells. This is the future of medicine.
中文： RNA（核糖核酸）或 mRNA（信使 RNA）基本上是合成病毒。我认为人们没有意识到正在发生的事情——这是医学的数字化。你可以创建一个像计算机程序一样的 RNA 或 DNA（脱氧核糖核酸）序列，并将其封装在脂质壳中，所以它看起来像你的细胞的美味款待。这是医学的未来。
English: You can do almost anything. You could probably figure out how to turn someone into a literal butterfly. Your cells are tiny biological computers. They execute just like old-school computers, where you feed it a tape or punch card. Your cells do whatever their punch card says. That was a big eye-opener, understanding the potential of RNA.
中文： 你几乎可以做任何事情。你可能可以找出如何将某人变成一只真正的蝴蝶。你的细胞是微小的生物计算机。它们的执行就像老式计算机，你给它喂磁带或打孔卡。你的细胞做它们的打孔卡说的任何事情。那是一个大开眼界的时刻，理解 RNA 的潜力。
English: You could start a company for high-speed travel. Reading about the California high-speed rail was depressing. California taxpayers are paying to build the most expensive high-speed rail per mile in the world—and the slowest. Those are not the superlatives you want.
中文： 你可以创办一家高速旅行公司。阅读关于加州高铁的报道令人沮丧。加州纳税人正在支付建造世界上每英里最贵的高铁——也是最慢的。那些不是你想要的最高的。
English: It's California! We make super high-tech stuff! Why are we spending—the estimates are around $100 billion—for something that will take two hours to go from LA to San Francisco? You can get on a plane and do that in forty-five minutes.
中文： 这是加州！我们制造超级高科技的东西！我们为什么要花费——估计约为 1000 亿美元——用于从洛杉矶到旧金山需要两个小时的东西？你可以坐上飞机，在四十五分钟内完成。
English: There has to be a better way to do this. What would you ideally want in a transportation system? You want something faster than existing modes of transportation. Let's say twice as fast, costs half as much per ticket, can't crash, is immune to weather, and is not energy intensive. You can self-power the whole thing with solar panels or something. That would be pretty good. The devil is in the details of making the thing work, but something like this could work and be practical.
中文： 必须有更好的方法来做这个。你在交通系统中理想地想要什么？你想要比现有交通方式更快的东西。比如说快两倍，每张票成本减半，不会撞车，不受天气影响，不耗能。你可以用太阳能电池板或其他方式为整个系统自供电。那会很好。魔鬼在于让这个东西工作的细节，但像这样的东西可以工作并且实用。
English: There's the possibility of this fifth mode of transport; I call it the Hyperloop.
中文： 有这种第五种交通方式的可能性；我称之为超级高铁。
English: For long-distance travel, you can do tunnels or tubes. If you remove the air or most of the air, you can get rid of the air friction and go supersonic. You can do so with no dependence on weather and no need to get to high altitude or create any sonic boom issues. That's what I envision for the Hyperloop. It's basically a pressurized electric car in a vacuum tube. This will be our next evolution in transport.
中文： 对于长途旅行，你可以做隧道或管道。如果你移除空气或大部分空气，你可以消除空气摩擦并达到超音速。你可以这样做而不依赖天气，也不需要到达高空或产生任何音爆问题。这就是我对超级高铁的设想。它基本上是一个真空管中的加压电动汽车。这将是我们交通的下一个进化。
English: We want the future to be better than the past. If we had something like the Hyperloop, you'd look forward to the day that was working. Even if it was only in one place—from LA to San Francisco, or New York to DC—it would be a tourist attraction and show it is possible.
中文： 我们希望未来比过去更好。如果我们有像超级高铁这样的东西，你会期待它工作的那一天。即使它只在一个地方——从洛杉矶到旧金山，或从纽约到华盛顿——它也将是一个旅游景点，并表明这是可能的。
English: Even if some of the initial assumptions didn't work out or the economics didn't work out quite as expected, it would still be cool. If you come up with a new technology, it should feel like that. If you told a stranger, would they look forward to the day this new thing became available?
中文： 即使一些初始假设没有实现或经济学没有完全如预期那样工作，它仍然会很酷。如果你想出一项新技术，它应该感觉像那样。如果你告诉一个陌生人，他们会期待这个新东西可用的一天吗？
English: Q: What is the most important piece of advice you have for anyone who wants to start a company on behalf of humanity?
中文： 问：你对任何想代表人类创办公司的人有什么最重要的建议？
English: The final thing I would encourage you to do is to take risks. Especially before you have kids and other obligations. As you get older, your obligations start to increase. Once you have a family, taking risks affects not just yourself, but your family as well. It gets harder to do things that might not work out. It is easiest to start before you have those obligations. Take risks now, and do something bold. You won't regret it.
中文： 我鼓励你做的最后一件事是冒险。特别是在你有孩子和其他义务之前。随着年龄的增长，你的义务开始增加。一旦你有了家庭，冒险不仅影响你自己，也影响你的家人。做可能不成功的事情变得更难。在你有那些义务之前开始是最容易的。现在就冒险，做一些大胆的事情。你不会后悔的。
English: Go do it. Just go out there and do it. People are far too afraid to try. Fear is the biggest reason for failure. Don't be afraid to fail. Just go.
中文： 去做吧。就出去做吧。人们太害怕尝试了。恐惧是失败的最大原因。不要害怕失败。就去吧。
English: If you don't push for radical breakthroughs, you're not going to get radical outcomes.
中文： 如果你不推动激进突破，你就不会得到激进的结果。
Companies Drive Progress
公司推动进步
English: The rate of innovation is not constant. This year, we're either going to increase the rate of innovation or it will slow down.
中文： 创新率不是恒定的。今年，我们要么会增加创新率，要么它会减慢。
English: Some people think technology automatically gets better every year. It does not. It only gets better if smart people work like crazy to make it better. We need strong engineering talent applied to problems. That's how any technology actually gets better. If people don't work on technology, it actually will decline.
中文： 有些人认为技术每年自动变得更好。不是这样的。只有聪明人疯狂工作让它变得更好，它才会变得更好。我们需要强大的工程人才应用于问题。这就是任何技术实际变得更好的方式。如果人们不研究技术，它实际上会衰退。
English: Look at the history of civilizations and you'll see this happen many times. Ancient Egypt was able to build incredible pyramids and forgot how to build pyramids. Then they forgot how to read hieroglyphics. In Rome, they were able to build incredible roadways, aqueducts, and indoor plumbing—they forgot how to do all those things. There are many examples in history. You should always bear in mind that entropy is not on our side.
中文： 看看文明的历史，你会看到这种情况发生很多次。古埃及能够建造令人难以置信的金字塔，却忘记了如何建造金字塔。然后他们忘记了如何阅读象形文字。在罗马，他们能够建造令人难以置信的道路、渡槽和室内管道——他们忘记了如何做所有那些事情。历史上有许多例子。你应该始终记住，熵不在我们这边。
English: More recently, if you look at American manned space missions: We were able to go to the moon in 1969, then the space shuttle could only go to low earth orbit. Then the space shuttle retired and for almost a decade America had no access to space for humans.
中文： 最近，如果你看美国载人太空任务：我们能够在 1969 年登月，然后航天飞机只能进入低地球轨道。然后航天飞机退役，近十年来美国没有人类进入太空的途径。
English: This is a pretty bad trend, trending to zero. We need a strong trend in the other direction to have any chance whatsoever of making life multiplanetary. That's the reason for the extreme sense of urgency. If we operate with extreme urgency, we have a chance of making life multiplanetary. Still just a chance; it's not certain. If we don't act with extreme urgency, that chance is probably zero.
中文： 这是一个相当糟糕的趋势，趋向于零。我们需要一个强烈的反向趋势，才有可能使生命成为多行星的。这就是极端紧迫感的原因。如果我们以极端紧迫感运作，我们有机会使生命成为多行星的。仍然只是一个机会；不确定。如果我们不以极端紧迫感行动，那个机会可能是零。
English: I am not one of the doomsday people. I think we're on a good path. But at the same time, I want to caution against complacency. If we are not complacent, and we have a high sense of urgency, things will be fine.
中文： 我不是末日论者之一。我认为我们走在正确的道路上。但同时，我想警告不要自满。如果我们不自满，并且我们有高度的紧迫感，事情会好的。
English: If you want the future to be good, you must make it so. Take action to make it good, and it will be.
中文： 如果你想要未来是好的，你必须让它如此。采取行动让它变好，它就会是。
THE AGE OF ABUNDANCE
丰盛时代
English: AI and robotics will bring about what might be termed "the age of abundance." Other people have used this word, and that is my prediction: It will be an age of abundance for everyone.
中文： AI 和机器人将带来所谓的"丰盛时代"。其他人已经使用了这个词，那是我的预测：这将是每个人的丰盛时代。
The End of Scarcity
稀缺的终结
English: People get confused sometimes; they think an economy is money. Money is just a database.
中文： 人们有时会困惑；他们认为经济是金钱。金钱只是一个数据库。
English: The actual economy is stuff. Goods and services. What limits the output of goods and services? The limiter is labor. Even capital is distilled labor, so the limiting factor for the economy is labor.
中文： 实际的经济是东西。商品和服务。什么限制了商品和服务的产出？限制因素是劳动力。甚至资本是蒸馏的劳动力，所以经济的限制因素是劳动力。
English: We can massively increase labor by building humanoid robots.
中文： 我们可以通过建造人形机器人来大幅增加劳动力。
English: If you remove labor as the limiting factor for the economy, it's not clear that an economy in the traditional sense has any meaning anymore because you have no constraint on goods and services. There will be no shortage of goods and services.
中文： 如果你移除劳动力作为经济的限制因素，传统意义上的经济是否还有任何意义就不清楚了，因为你对商品和服务没有限制。将不会有商品和服务的短缺。
English: The first units we intend to make are for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive things that people don't want to do.
中文： 我们打算制造的第一批单元是用于危险、无聊、重复性的工作，人们不想做这些事情。
English: In the future, the only forms of scarcity will be artificial scarcity (where we decide to make it scarce, like a particular piece of art) or unique items like a particular home in an exact location.
中文： 在未来，唯一形式的稀缺将是人为稀缺（我们决定让它稀缺，比如一件特定的艺术品）或独特物品，比如特定位置的特定房屋。
English: Don't worry about robots putting people out of jobs. We already have a massive shortage of labor. We will still have a shortage of labor even in the future. Robotics will create a world of abundance—goods and services will be available to anyone who wants them, so cheap it'll be ridiculous.
中文： 不要担心机器人让人们失业。我们已经有了巨大的劳动力短缺。即使在未来，我们仍将面临劳动力短缺。机器人技术将创造一个丰盛的世界——商品和服务将提供给任何想要它们的人，便宜得荒谬。
English: Our goal at Tesla is to make a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible. Eventually, there will be millions of them. This means a future of abundance, a future where there is no poverty. We can afford to have a universal basic income for people. It really is a fundamental transformation of civilization.
中文： 我们在特斯拉的目标是尽快制造一个有用的人形机器人。最终，将有数百万个。这意味着一个丰盛的未来，一个没有贫困的未来。我们可以为人们提供普遍基本收入。这确实是文明的根本转变。
English: People have no idea; the market for humanoid robots will be bigger than that of cars.
中文： 人们不知道；人形机器人市场将比汽车市场更大。
English: There will be humanoid robots throughout factories. Cars will also be entirely automatic. Anywhere intelligence can be applied will be automated. That's maybe 2033–2043.
中文： 工厂里将有人形机器人。汽车也将完全自动化。任何可以应用智能的地方都将自动化。那可能是 2033-2043 年。
English: As we go further into the future, things are gonna change a lot. Everything will be automatic. There will be household robots that you can talk to as if they are people. It will help you, be a companion, or whatever the case may be. It will be able to pick up your kids from school or stay with them at school if you want. It will be able to teach kids anything and support any language.
中文： 随着我们进一步走向未来，事情将发生很大变化。一切都将是自动的。将有家用机器人，你可以像和人一样与它们交谈。它将帮助你，成为伴侣，或任何其他情况。它将能够从学校接你的孩子，或者如果你愿意，可以在学校陪伴他们。它将能够教孩子任何事情并支持任何语言。
English: Long term, I think the ratio of humanoid robots will be more than one-to-one. There might be two humanoid robots per person or more, maybe ten for every one. Well in excess of ten billion humanoid robots. At volume production, a humanoid robot will cost less than a car.
中文： 长期来看，我认为人形机器人的比例将超过一比一。可能每个人有两个或更多的人形机器人，也许每一个人十个。远超过一百亿个人形机器人。在批量生产时，人形机器人的成本将低于汽车。
Exponential Intelligence
指数智能
English: Computing power is going to be crazy. The big change is the cost of computing power, not so much the circuit density (known as Moore's Law). If you look at dollars per instruction, cost is dropping exponentially.
中文： 计算能力将变得疯狂。最大的变化是计算能力的成本，而不是电路密度（称为摩尔定律）。如果你看每条指令的美元成本，成本正在呈指数下降。
English: We'll see massively parallel computers, computing power, and storage become extremely available. There will be ubiquitous computing everywhere.
中文： 我们将看到大规模并行计算机、计算能力和存储变得极其可用。到处都将有无处不在的计算。
English: I expect AI to be incredibly sophisticated by the 2040s. Predicting trends in an exponential curve is tricky, because up close it often looks linear. But actually, it's not linear. The pace of AI development itself appears to be accelerating.
中文： 我预计到 2040 年代，AI 将变得极其复杂。预测指数曲线中的趋势是棘手的，因为近距离看它通常看起来是线性的。但实际上，它不是线性的。AI 发展本身的速度似乎在加快。
English: The ratio of total digital compute to total biological compute is the key metric to watch. This is perhaps the most fundamental ratio defining technological progress. It is rising incredibly fast.
中文： 总数字计算与总生物计算的比例是要关注的关键指标。这可能是定义技术进步的最基本比例。它正在以惊人的速度上升。
English: We're building progressively greater intelligences, and the percentage of nonhuman intelligence is increasing. Eventually we humans will represent a small percentage of total intelligence. It might feel like we're the biological bootloader for AI.
中文： 我们正在逐步建造更大的智能，非人类智能的百分比正在增加。最终，我们人类将只占总智能的一小部分。感觉可能像是我们是 AI 的生物引导程序。
English: We're fairly close to artificial general intelligence, perhaps only a few years away. It's possible we are on the event horizon of the black hole that is artificial superintelligence. Over a twenty- to thirty-year time frame, things could be transformed beyond belief. We probably won't recognize society in thirty years.
中文： 我们相当接近人工通用智能，也许只有几年之遥。我们可能正处于人工超级智能黑洞的事件视界上。在二十到三十年的时间框架内，事情可能会变得难以置信地转变。三十年后我们可能认不出社会了。
Upgrading the Human Mind
升级人类思维
English: The internet is a great leveler for information and education. You can learn anything online for free.
中文： 互联网是信息和教育的伟大平衡器。你可以免费在线学习任何东西。
English: A thousand years ago there were very few books. Even if you had a thirst for knowledge you couldn't do much about it, because books were incredibly expensive and rare, and only a few people knew how to read. Books were difficult to get until the Gutenberg Press. Technology is what causes these big step-changes in civilization.
中文： 一千年前书籍非常少。即使你有求知欲，你也无能为力，因为书籍非常昂贵和稀有，只有少数人知道如何阅读。在古腾堡印刷机之前，书籍很难获得。技术是导致文明中这些巨大阶梯式变化的原因。
English: Even if you could read and were in the Library of Congress, you still didn't have access to all the world's information, and you certainly couldn't search it. And, of course, very few people could be in the Library of Congress at once.
中文： 即使你能阅读并在国会图书馆，你仍然无法访问世界上所有的信息，你当然也无法搜索它。当然，很少有人能同时在国会图书馆。
English: The internet is something beyond the Gutenberg press. When the general public started using the internet, it felt like humanity was developing a nervous system. Any part of humanity got access to almost all human knowledge. You could be deep in the Amazon jungle with a Starlink terminal and have access to more information than the US president did in 1980.
中文： 互联网是超越古腾堡印刷机的东西。当公众开始使用互联网时，感觉就像人类正在发展神经系统。人类的任何部分都可以访问几乎所有人类知识。你可以带着星链终端深入亚马逊丛林，获得比 1980 年美国总统更多的信息。
English: To transfer data before the digital age, you had to write a letter. Someone would have to carry the letter to another person with a bunch of physical work in between. That's insanely slow when you think about it. Now, you can access any book instantly; you can learn anything. It's incredible.
中文： 在数字时代之前传输数据，你必须写信。有人必须把信带给另一个人，中间有一堆体力劳动。当你想到这一点时，那是疯狂慢的。现在，你可以立即访问任何书籍；你可以学习任何东西。这令人难以置信。
English: Any student of history would agree: The internet has been the biggest equalizer in history for access to information and knowledge.
中文： 任何历史学生都会同意：互联网一直是历史上获取信息和知识的最大平衡器。
English: We already have a digital layer to our minds, in a sense, with our computer or our phone. You can access any book or song. You can ask a question on Google and get an answer instantly. With your laptop, you can outcompute an Empire State Building filled with people and calculators. These are incredible superpowers, which even the president of the United States didn't have back in the year 2000.
中文： 在某种意义上，我们已经通过电脑或手机为我们的思维添加了数字层。你可以访问任何书籍或歌曲。你可以在谷歌上提问并立即得到答案。用你的笔记本电脑，你可以超越装满人和计算器的帝国大厦。这些都是令人难以置信的超能力，即使是美国总统在 2000 年也没有。
English: People don't appreciate this yet—they are already a cyborg. You're a different creature than you would have been twenty years ago, or even ten years ago.
中文： 人们还没有意识到这一点——他们已经是半机械人了。你与二十年前，甚至十年前的你是不同的生物。
English: They do surveys asking, "How long can you be away from your phone?" Particularly for younger people, even a day is painful. If you leave your phone behind, it's like missing a limb. People have already merged with their phones.
中文： 他们进行调查问，"你能离开手机多久？"特别是对年轻人来说，即使一天也是痛苦的。如果你把手机落在后面，就像失去肢体一样。人们已经与手机融合了。
English: You're already digitally superhuman.
中文： 你已经在数字上超人了。
English: Q: Will the brain–computer interface change humans and how we use computers?
中文： 问：脑机接口会改变人类和我们使用电脑的方式吗？
English: Yes, an intertwined idea is having a higher-bandwidth interface between computers and the brain. We're currently bandwidth limited. The connection is bottlenecked in this tiny straw of an interface, poking glass with your meat sticks.
中文： 是的，一个交织的想法是在计算机和大脑之间拥有更高带宽的接口。我们目前受带宽限制。连接在这个微小的接口 straw 中受到瓶颈限制，用你的肉棒戳玻璃。
English: Ten-finger typing on a keyboard used to be the most common input to a computer. Now, it's usually two-thumb typing. Our output quality has gone backward.
中文： 在键盘上十指打字曾经是计算机最常见的输入。现在，通常是两个拇指打字。我们的输出质量倒退了。
English: The sustained output of a human over the course of a day is less than one bit per second. There are 86,400 seconds in a day. It is extremely rare for a human to output more than that number of symbols per day, certainly for several days in a row. We should be able to improve that by many orders of magnitude with a direct neural interface—a high-bandwidth interface to your digital enhancements.
中文： 人类一天中的持续输出少于每秒一位。一天有 86,400 秒。人类每天输出超过该数量的符号是极其罕见的，当然连续几天更是如此。我们应该能够通过直接神经接口——对你的数字增强的高带宽接口——将其提高多个数量级。
English: Noland Arbaugh was the very first Neuralink patient. After he got the Neuralink implant, he spent all night playing Civilization, which is awesome. That's exactly what I'd do too. Even with only roughly 10 to 15 percent of the electrodes working, we were able to achieve a bit per second. That was twice the previous world record. Maybe five years from now, we might be at a megabit—faster than any human could possibly communicate by typing or speaking.
中文： 诺兰·阿博是第一位 Neuralink 患者。在他获得 Neuralink 植入物后，他整夜玩《文明》，这太棒了。那也是我会做的。即使只有大约 10% 到 15% 的电极工作，我们也能够实现每秒一位。那是之前世界纪录的两倍。也许五年后，我们可能达到一兆比特——比任何人通过打字或说话交流都快。
English: The Neuralink interface can massively increase your output bandwidth and your input bandwidth. Input being written operations to the brain, where the brain is reading signals.
中文： Neuralink 接口可以大幅增加你的输出带宽和输入带宽。输入是写入大脑的操作，大脑在那里读取信号。
English: If we achieve tight symbiosis, AI wouldn't be "other"—it would be integrated with you. Imagine it has a relationship to your conscious mind similar to your unconscious mind.
中文： 如果我们实现紧密共生，AI 就不会是"其他"——它将与你整合。想象它与你的意识思维的关系类似于你的潜意识。
English: Your brain has to work to compress a bunch of concepts in your head into this incredibly low data rate format called speech or typing. That's what language is—a compression algorithm on thought, to transfer a concept. Then it's got to listen and decompress what's coming in. Both of these steps are very lossy.
中文： 你的大脑必须努力将你头脑中的一堆概念压缩成这种极低数据速率的格式，称为说话或打字。这就是语言——对思想的压缩算法，以传输概念。然后它必须倾听并解压进来的内容。这两个步骤都非常有损。
English: If you have two direct-brain interfaces, you could do an uncompressed direct conceptual communication with another person. Like consensual telepathy. The conversation would be a conceptual interaction on a level that's difficult to conceive of right now.
中文： 如果你有两个直接大脑接口，你可以与另一个人进行未压缩的直接概念交流。就像共识心灵感应。对话将是一个目前难以想象的概念层面的互动。
English: Conceivably, there's a way to have a digital layer of your brain feel like part of you. It's not something you offload to consciously; it's just "you."
中文： 可以想象，有一种方式让你大脑的数字层感觉像你的一部分。它不是你有意识地卸载的东西；它只是"你"。
English: To start out, we are really just solving basic neurological damage, like for people who have essentially complete or near complete loss from the brain to the body. For someone like Stephen Hawking, the Neuralink would be incredibly profound. Imagine if Stephen Hawking could communicate as fast as we're communicating, perhaps faster. And that's certainly possible. Probable, in fact.
中文： 开始时，我们真的只是在解决基本的神经损伤，比如那些从大脑到身体基本或几乎完全丧失功能的人。对于像斯蒂芬·霍金这样的人，Neuralink 将是极其深远的。想象一下，如果斯蒂芬·霍金能像我们交流一样快地交流，也许更快。这当然是可能的。事实上，很可能。
English: There's obviously some risk with a new device. You can't get the risk down to zero; it's not possible. So, you want to have the highest possible reward, given there's a certain irreducible risk. And if somebody's able to have a profound improvement in their communication, that's worth the risk.
中文： 新设备显然有一些风险。你不能将风险降到零；这是不可能的。所以，鉴于有一定的不可减少的风险，你想要尽可能高的回报。如果有人能够在交流方面取得深刻改善，那是值得冒险的。
English: We can deliver new information to the brain too. If somebody is completely blind, we can write directly to the visual cortex to give them sight. At first it will be relatively fairly low resolution, but long term you would have very high resolution.
中文： 我们也可以向大脑传递新信息。如果有人完全失明，我们可以直接写入视觉皮层给他们视力。起初分辨率将相对较低，但长期来看你将拥有非常高分辨率。
English: This is actually our second product, called Blindsight. It enables people who are completely blind, lost both eyes or optic nerve, or just can't see at all, to be able to see by directly triggering the neurons in the visual cortex.
中文： 这实际上是我们的第二个产品，称为盲视。它使完全失明、失去双眼或视神经，或根本看不见的人能够通过直接触发视觉皮层中的神经元来看见。
English: At some point, the cybernetic implants wouldn't simply be correcting things that went wrong but augmenting human capabilities. You could even see multispectral wavelengths like infrared, ultraviolet, and radar. That's a superpower situation. Augmenting intelligence, senses, and bandwidth dramatically—that's going to happen at some point.
中文： 在某个时候，控制论植入物将不仅仅是纠正出错的事情，而是增强人类能力。你甚至可以看到多光谱波长，如红外线、紫外线和雷达。那是超能力的情况。大幅增强智能、感官和带宽——那将在某个时候发生。
The Last Human Drivers
最后的人类司机
English: It's crazy to let people drive a two-ton death machine manually. They can drive into whatever they want. In the future, it's going to seem like a mad thing that people once drove cars.
中文： 让人们手动驾驶两吨死亡机器是疯狂的。他们可以开车撞任何他们想要的东西。在未来，人们曾经开车将看起来像疯狂的事情。
English: In the early days of Tesla, 2013, a guy fell asleep at the wheel in a Model S, and he ran over a cyclist and killed him. Unfortunately, people fall asleep at the wheel often. If we had already built autopilot, this cyclist would still be alive. I thought, We'd better hurry up and get it working.
中文： 在特斯拉早期，2013 年，一个家伙在 Model S 中开车时睡着了，他撞倒了一名骑自行车的人并杀死了他。不幸的是，人们经常在开车时睡着。如果我们已经建造了自动驾驶仪，这个骑自行车的人还会活着。我想，我们最好快点让它工作。
English: There are clearly two massive revolutions coming to the automobile industry; one is the transition to electrification, and then the other is autonomy. It became obvious to me that in the future, any car that does not have autonomy would be about as useful as a horse. That's not to say it has no use…but it is rare for somebody to have a horse these days. It's obvious cars will drive themselves completely; it's just a question of time.
中文： 显然汽车行业将迎来两场巨大的革命；一场是向电气化的过渡，另一场是自动驾驶。我清楚地意识到，在未来，任何没有自动驾驶的汽车将像马一样有用。这不是说它没有用处……但现在很少有人养马。很明显汽车将完全自动驾驶；这只是时间问题。
English: An autonomous car is arguably worth five to ten times more than a car that is not autonomous.
中文： 一辆自动驾驶汽车的价值可以说是非自动驾驶汽车的五到十倍。
English: The autonomy system is likely to mitigate crashes except in rare circumstances. Vehicle safety is probabilistic. There's some chance any time a human driver gets in a car that they will have an accident that is their fault. The odds are never zero. The key threshold for autonomy is: How much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?
中文： 自动驾驶系统可能会减少碰撞，除非在罕见情况下。车辆安全是概率性的。任何时候人类司机上车都有可能发生他们过错的事故。几率永远不会是零。自动驾驶的关键阈值是：自动驾驶需要比人类好多少你才能依赖它？
English: About a million people die every year in car accidents and about ten million per year have serious injuries. Bringing the day of self-driving sooner translates directly to lives saved and injuries avoided. The sooner, the better. A lot of lives will be saved and made better.
中文： 每年约有 100 万人死于车祸，每年约有 1000 万人受重伤。让自动驾驶早日到来直接转化为拯救生命和避免伤害。越早越好。很多生命将被拯救和改善。
English: Tesla deployed partial autonomy immediately because when used correctly, it was already significantly safer than a person driving by themself. It would be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.
中文： 特斯拉立即部署了部分自动驾驶，因为当正确使用时，它已经比一个人自己开车安全得多。仅仅因为害怕负面新闻或对法律责任的商业计算而延迟发布在道德上是应受谴责的。
English: Autonomous cars could maneuver with a reaction time much faster than a human. Over time, autopilot will be capable of impossible maneuvers that a human could never do.
中文： 自动驾驶汽车可以以比人类快得多的反应时间机动。随着时间的推移，自动驾驶将能够完成人类永远无法做到的不可能机动。
English: I told the team I want the latest data on miles per intervention to be the starting slide at each of our meetings. If we're training AI to drive, what do we optimize? The answer is higher miles between interventions. It is motivating to watch each day as the miles per intervention increases. Video games without a score are boring.
中文： 我告诉团队，我希望每次会议的开始幻灯片都是每次干预里程的最新数据。如果我们在训练 AI 驾驶，我们优化什么？答案是干预之间更高的里程。看着每天每次干预里程增加是令人鼓舞的。没有分数的电子游戏很无聊。
English: We always try to do the right thing. When we make mistakes, it may be because we were being foolish or stupid, but it's always with the right motivations.
中文： 我们总是努力做正确的事情。当我们犯错时，可能是因为我们愚蠢或笨拙，但总是出于正确的动机。
English: When true self-driving is approved by regulators, you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read, or do anything else en route to your destination.
中文： 当真正的自动驾驶获得监管机构批准时，你将能够从几乎任何地方召唤你的特斯拉。一旦它接上你，你将能够在前往目的地的途中睡觉、阅读或做任何其他事情。
English: Mega-long-term, I think of cars as being effectively carriers for the autonomy software. It's the vehicle, literally and figuratively for autonomy. It's the software that rides on the car.
中文： 超长期来看，我认为汽车实际上是自动驾驶软件的载体。它是自动驾驶的载体，字面上和比喻上都是。它是搭载在汽车上的软件。
English: Eventually, self-driving cars will take the form of a shared autonomous fleet. You buy your car, and you could choose to use your car exclusively yourself, have it used only by friends and family, or only by other drivers who are rated five stars. You can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That's 100 percent what will occur. It's just a question of when.
中文： 最终，自动驾驶汽车将采取共享自动驾驶车队的形式。你购买你的汽车，你可以选择 exclusively 自己使用你的汽车，只让朋友和家人使用，或只由其他评级为五星的司机使用。你可以选择有时共享它，但有时不共享。那是 100% 会发生的。这只是时间问题。
English: This autonomy shift is massive, because you could suddenly have five times the utility of the car you currently have. Say a normal passenger car gets ten to twelve hours a week of usage. An autonomous car could be used fifty to sixty hours a week.
中文： 这种自动驾驶转变是巨大的，因为你突然可以拥有你目前汽车五倍的效用。假设一辆普通乘用车每周使用十到十二小时。一辆自动驾驶汽车每周可以使用五十到六十小时。
English: This is all good for the environment, because you need fewer cars to get the same thing done. We would need fewer parking lots and garages to store cars when they're not in use, because they're in use a lot more.
中文： 这对环境都有好处，因为你需要更少的汽车来完成同样的事情。我们将需要更少的停车场和车库来存放不使用的汽车，因为它们使用得更多。
English: If this is true, as autonomous driving capability is turned on for the Tesla fleet, it may be the biggest asset value increase in history…overnight.
中文： 如果这是真的，随着特斯拉车队开启自动驾驶能力，这可能是历史上最大的资产价值增长……一夜之间。
English: So, in short, Master Plan Part Deux is: → Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage. → Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments. → Develop a self-driving capability that is ten times safer than manual via massive fleet learning. → Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it.
中文： 所以，简而言之，第二部总体规划是：→ 创建令人惊叹的太阳能屋顶，无缝集成电池存储。→ 扩展电动汽车产品线，涵盖所有主要细分市场。→ 通过大规模车队学习开发比手动驾驶安全十倍的自动驾驶能力。→ 让你在不使用汽车时为你赚钱。
English: I can't say enough about the profundity of full self-driving. It will be one of the biggest changes in history. It's not just some feature; it is as profound as electrification. We already have millions of cars on the road now able to achieve this with the right software update.
中文： 我对完全自动驾驶的深远意义怎么说都不为过。它将是历史上最大的变化之一。它不仅仅是一些功能；它与电气化一样深远。我们现在已经有数百万辆汽车在路上，通过正确的软件更新就能实现这一点。
English: Eventually, a vehicle must be designed as a clean Robotaxi. We're going to take that risk. No mirrors, no pedals, no steering wheel. This will be a historically megarevolutionary product. It will transform everything. This is the product that makes Tesla a ten-trillion-dollar company. People will be talking about this moment in a hundred years.
中文： 最终，车辆必须设计为干净的 Robotaxi。我们将承担这个风险。没有镜子，没有踏板，没有方向盘。这将是一个历史上超级革命性的产品。它将改变一切。这是让特斯拉成为十万亿美元公司的产品。人们将在一百年后谈论这一刻。
SUSTAINABLE ABUNDANCE
可持续丰盛
English: We're accelerating the world's transition to sustainable abundance.
中文： 我们正在加速世界向可持续丰盛的过渡。
English: In Tesla's Master Plan, Part 3, the thing we wanted to convey, more importantly than anything else, is that there is a clear path to a sustainable-energy Earth. It doesn't require destroying natural habitats; it doesn't require us to be austere and stop using electricity. We have published a detailed white paper with all of our assumptions and calculations of a clear path to a fully sustainable Earth, with abundance.
中文： 在特斯拉总体规划第三部分中，我们想传达的，比任何其他事情都重要的是，有一个清晰的通往可持续能源地球的道路。它不需要破坏自然栖息地；它不需要我们节俭并停止使用电力。我们发表了一份详细的白皮书，包含我们所有的假设和计算，通往完全可持续地球的清晰道路，带有丰盛。
English: In fact, you could support a civilization much larger on Earth. Much more than the current eight billion humans could be supported sustainably on Earth.
中文： 事实上，你可以在地球上支持一个更大的文明。远远超过目前的 80 亿人类可以在地球上可持续地支持。
English: I'm often shocked by how few people realize this. Most of the smart people I know actually don't see this clear path. They think there is no path to a sustainable energy future with our current population. Or that we'd have to resort to extreme measures. None of this is true. In Master Plan, Part 3, we walk through the calculations for how to create a sustainable-energy civilization.
中文： 我经常震惊于很少有人意识到这一点。我认识的大多数聪明人实际上看不到这条清晰的路径。他们认为以我们目前的人口没有通往可持续能源未来的道路。或者我们不得不诉诸极端措施。这些都不是真的。在总体规划第三部分中，我们逐步计算如何创建一个可持续能源文明。
English: A fully electrified and sustainable economy is within reach through the actions in this paper: 1. Repower the existing grid with renewables 2. Switch to electric vehicles 3. Switch to heat pumps in residential, business, and industry 4. Electrify high-temperature heat delivery and hydrogen production 5. Sustainably fuel planes and boats 6. Manufacture the sustainable energy economy
中文： 通过本文中的行动，完全电气化和可持续的经济触手可及：1. 用可再生能源重新供电现有电网 2. 转向电动汽车 3. 在住宅、商业和工业中转向热泵 4. 电气化高温热输送和氢气生产 5. 可持续地为飞机和船只提供燃料 6. 制造可持续能源经济
English: Our models show the electrified and sustainable future is technically feasible and requires less investment and less material extraction than continuing today's unsustainable energy economy.
中文： 我们的模型表明，电气化和可持续的未来在技术上是可行的，并且比继续今天不可持续的能源经济需要更少的投资和更少的材料开采。
English: The tools we make at Tesla help us build the products that advance human prosperity. Making technologically advanced products that are affordable and available at scale is required to build a flourishing and unconstrained society. It serves to further democratize society while raising everyone's quality of life in the process.
中文： 我们在特斯拉制造的工具帮助我们建造促进人类繁荣的产品。制造价格实惠且可大规模获得的技术先进产品是建立繁荣和不受约束的社会所必需的。它有助于进一步民主化社会，同时在此过程中提高每个人的生活质量。
English: The hallmark of meritocracy is creating opportunities that enable each person to use their skills to accomplish whatever they imagine. Everyone deserves access to these opportunities, and technological growth can help ensure that each of us is able to maximize our most limited resource: time.
中文： 精英管理的标志是创造机会，使每个人都能利用自己的技能完成他们想象的任何事情。每个人都应该有机会获得这些机会，技术增长可以帮助确保我们每个人都能够最大化我们最有限的资源：时间。
OUR EXISTENTIAL RISKS
我们的生存风险
English: Don't worry about it. I mean, worry about it. Because if you worry about it, ironically, it will be okay. It will be a self-unfulfilling prophecy.
中文： 不要担心它。我的意思是，担心它。因为如果你担心它，讽刺的是，它会没事的。这将是一个自我未实现的预言。
This Is the Best Time to Be Alive
这是活着的最佳时机
English: Q: What period of history would you prefer to live in the most?
中文： 问：你最喜欢生活在哪个历史时期？
English: Right now. The present is the most interesting time in history—and I read a lot of history. Let's do our best to keep that going.
中文： 现在。现在是历史上最有趣的时期——我读了很多历史。让我们尽最大努力保持下去。
English: I find history fascinating. A lot of incredible things have been done, good and bad. By learning about them, you understand the nature of civilization and individuals.
中文： 我发现历史很迷人。很多不可思议的事情已经完成，好的和坏的。通过了解它们，你理解文明和个人的本质。
English: There's a lot of human history, but most of it is people getting on with their lives. Human history is not a nonstop war and disaster. Those are actually intermittent and rare. If they weren't, humans would soon cease to exist. But historians write more about wars than peace. A normal year where nothing major happened won't be written about much. Most people just farmed and lived their life as a villager somewhere.
中文： 人类历史很多，但大部分是人们继续他们的生活。人类历史不是无休止的战争和灾难。那些实际上是间歇性的和罕见的。如果不是这样，人类很快就会停止存在。但历史学家写的战争比和平多。一个没有发生重大事件的正常年份不会被写太多。大多数人只是耕种并在某个地方作为村民生活。
English: Life was tough for most of history. In most of human history, a good year would be one where not that many people in your village died of disease, starvation, freezing, or being killed by a neighboring village. If you only lost 5 percent of your village in a year, that was a good year.
中文： 生活在大部分历史中都很艰难。在人类历史的大多数时候，好的一年是你村里没有太多人死于疾病、饥饿、冻死或被邻近村庄杀死。如果你一年只失去村里 5% 的人，那是好的一年。
English: Not starving to death would have been the primary goal of most people throughout history. Just making sure they had enough food to last through the winter and not freeze to death.
中文： 不饿死将是历史上大多数人的主要目标。只是确保他们有足够的食物度过冬天，不会冻死。
English: If you judge history from what is morally acceptable today, you'd give everyone a failing grade. I don't think anyone would get a passing grade in morality if you look back to even three hundred years ago.
中文： 如果你从今天道德上可接受的标准来判断历史，你会给每个人不及格的分数。我认为如果你回顾到甚至三百年前，没有人会在道德上得到及格分数。
English: Q: How does history help you understand the future?
中文： 问：历史如何帮助你理解未来？
English: I try to understand the rise and fall of civilizations. I've read a lot of history to discern the facts of what humans did.
中文： 我试图理解文明的兴衰。我读了很多历史来辨别人类所做的事实。
English: We take for granted that "it's always going to be there," but if you study history, you realize civilizations rise and fall.
中文： 我们认为"它将永远存在"是理所当然的，但如果你研究历史，你会意识到文明兴衰。
English: I was reading about the ancient Sumerians, who were arguably the first civilization. They were the first to develop writing, but eventually they died out. Then, nobody could read their writing at all. They were impressive in their time but they faded out as a civilization. The ancient Egyptians, the same thing. One after another. Ancient Greece had its day. There've been ebbs and flows in the Chinese and Indian civilizations over the eons as well.
中文： 我在阅读关于古代苏美尔人，他们可以说是第一个文明。他们是第一个发展文字的，但最终他们灭绝了。然后，没有人能读懂他们的文字。他们在他们的时代令人印象深刻，但作为一个文明他们消失了。古埃及人，同样的事情。一个接一个。古希腊有过它的辉煌。中国和印度文明在亿万年中也有起伏。
English: Only a tiny fraction of what was ever written in history is available to us now. Probably less than 1 percent. If they didn't chisel it in stone or put it in a clay tablet, we don't have it. There are a few papyrus scrolls that are thousands of years old because they were deep inside a pyramid. The little information we have shows many civilizations rising and falling. It's wild. And the basics of human nature are more or less the same today.
中文： 历史上写过的东西只有一小部分现在可供我们使用。可能不到 1%。如果他们没有把它刻在石头上或放在粘土板上，我们就没有它。有一些纸莎草卷轴有几千年的历史，因为它们在金字塔深处。我们拥有的少量信息显示许多文明兴衰。这很疯狂。人性的基本今天或多或少是一样的。
English: We see patterns for civilizations as they go through a life cycle, like an organism does. A human is a zygote, fetus, baby, toddler, teenager, eventually gets older, and dies. Every civilization goes through a life cycle. No civilization will last forever.
中文： 我们看到文明在经历生命周期时的模式，就像生物体一样。人类是受精卵、胎儿、婴儿、幼儿、青少年，最终变老，然后死亡。每个文明都经历一个生命周期。没有文明会永远存在。
English: The birth rate might be the biggest single threat to the future of human civilization. Artificial intelligence (AI) gone wrong is a big concern. Religious extremism is a concern. There are quite a few important problems to solve.
中文： 出生率可能是人类文明未来的最大单一威胁。人工智能（AI）出错是一个大问题。宗教极端主义是一个问题。有相当多的重要问题需要解决。
English: We should view our civilization as much more fragile than we think. We must keep civilization going onward and upward as much as possible and try to minimize the civilizational threats that occur.
中文： 我们应该将我们的文明视为比我们认为的更脆弱。我们必须尽可能让文明继续向前向上，并尽量减少发生的文明威胁。
World War III
第三次世界大战
English: I'm not predicting a world war anytime soon. But given enough time, it will likely happen. This has been our pattern in the past. In the last century we had two massive world wars, three if you count the Cold War. It's unlikely that we'll never have another world war. We probably will at some point.
中文： 我不是预测很快会发生世界大战。但给定足够的时间，它可能会发生。这是我们过去的模式。在上个世纪我们有两次大规模世界大战，如果算上冷战就是三次。我们永远不会再有世界大战是不太可能的。我们可能在某个时候会有。
English: Any war is tragic and difficult on a local basis. Then some wars are civilization-ending, or have that potential. Global thermonuclear warfare has a high potential to end civilization, perhaps permanently. But it could severely wound civilization and set back human progress to the Stone Age.
中文： 任何战争在局部基础上都是悲剧和困难的。然后一些战争是文明终结的，或有这种潜力。全球热核战争有很高的可能性终结文明，可能是永久性的。但它可能严重伤害文明，将人类进步倒退到石器时代。
English: We want to prioritize avoiding civilizational risks over things that are painful and tragic on a local level, but are not civilizational risks.
中文： 我们希望优先考虑避免文明风险，而不是那些在局部层面上痛苦和悲剧但不是文明风险的事情。
English: in eastern North Africa and Italy. All his friends were killed in front of him. He would've died there too, except they finally gave him an IQ test. After the test, he was transferred to British intelligence in London.
中文： 在北非东部和意大利。他所有的朋友都在他面前被杀。他也会死在那里，除非他们最终给他做了智商测试。测试后，他被转移到伦敦的英国情报部门。
English: From the war, he had extreme PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder). Like next level. He just didn't talk. Ever. If you tried talking to him, he'd just tell you to shut up. He won a bunch of medals. Never bragged about it once, not even hinted at it. Nothing. I found out by searching his military records online. He knows the horrors of war. He would say, "No way in hell do you want war. Avoid it at all costs." But he died thirty years ago. How many people are alive now who viscerally remember World War II? Not many.
中文： 从战争中，他患有极端的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）。像下一个级别。他只是不说话。永远。如果你试图和他说话，他只会告诉你闭嘴。他赢得了一堆勋章。从未吹嘘过一次，甚至没有暗示过。什么都没有。我通过在线搜索他的军事记录发现的。他知道战争的恐怖。他会说，"你绝对不想要战争。不惜一切代价避免它。"但他三十年前去世了。现在有多少人发自内心地记得第二次世界大战？不多。
English: I recommend people read about World War I warfare in detail. It's rough. The sheer number of people who died is mind boggling. There's a saying from World War I, "Young boys who don't know each other, killing each other on behalf of old men that do know each other." What the hell is the point of that?
中文： 我建议人们详细阅读关于第一次世界大战的战争。这很残酷。死亡人数之多令人难以置信。第一次世界大战有一句话，"互不相识的年轻男孩，代表互相认识的老人互相残杀。"这到底有什么意义？
English: Something must stop the cycle of reciprocal violence. Something must stop it or it will never stop. Just eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth, limb for a limb, life for a life, forever and ever.
中文： 必须有什么东西阻止相互暴力的循环。必须有什么东西阻止它，否则它永远不会停止。只是以眼还眼，以牙还牙，以肢还肢，以命还命，永远永远。
English: I recommend reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. The premise is protecting society through a dark age. My guess is there will be another dark age at some point.
中文： 我建议阅读艾萨克·阿西莫夫的《基地》系列。前提是在黑暗时代保护社会。我的猜测是某个时候会有另一个黑暗时代。
English: I'm not predicting we're about to enter a dark age. But there is some probability that we will, particularly if there's a third world war. We need to ensure there are enough of us, enough of a seed of human civilization to revive civilization and shorten the length of a dark age.
中文： 我不是预测我们即将进入黑暗时代。但有一些可能性我们会，特别是如果有第三次世界大战。我们需要确保有足够多的人，足够多的人类文明种子来复兴文明并缩短黑暗时代的长度。
English: Asimov's Zeroth Law: Take the set of actions most likely to support the humanity of the future.
中文： 阿西莫夫第零定律：采取最有可能支持未来人类的行动集合。
Regulation Accumulation
法规累积
English: Be cautious about the gradual creep of regulations and bureaucracy. Humans die, but the laws they created don't.
中文： 对法规和官僚主义的逐渐蔓延要保持谨慎。人类会死，但他们创建的法律不会。
English: The early auto industry was a hotbed of innovation at the beginning of the twentieth century. Many regulations were since added in attempts to protect consumers. The government tends to stand in the way of innovation, even with good intentions. Sometimes they overregulate industries to the point where innovation becomes difficult.
中文： 早期汽车工业在二十世纪初是创新的温床。此后添加了许多法规试图保护消费者。政府倾向于阻碍创新，即使是出于好意。有时他们对行业监管过度，以至于创新变得困难。
English: It's crazy how much regulation there is. You can argue and get these things changed, but it takes ages. One of the things we're trying to change is the requirement for side mirrors. Why should cars need them when tiny video cameras can display an image inside the car instead? I met with the US Secretary of Transportation and asked, "Can you change this regulation?" Still, nothing has happened. That was in 2011.
中文： 有多少监管是疯狂的。你可以争论并让这些改变，但需要很长时间。我们试图改变的事情之一是后视镜的要求。当微型摄像头可以在车内显示图像时，为什么汽车需要它们？我会见了美国交通部长并问，"你能改变这个规定吗？"仍然，什么都没有发生。那是 2011 年。
English: I am incredibly compliant.
中文： 我非常合规。
English: We wouldn't be allowed to put cars on the road if we did not comply with the vast body of automotive regulations. If we don't comply with all of them we can't sell the car. If we don't comply with all of the regulations for SpaceX or for Starlink, they shut us down. My companies are cumulatively overseen by a few hundred regulatory agencies.
中文： 如果我们不遵守大量的汽车法规，我们就不被允许将汽车上路。如果我们不遵守所有这些规定，我们就不能销售汽车。如果我们不遵守 SpaceX 或 Starlink 的所有规定，他们会关闭我们。我的公司累计受到数百家监管机构的监督。
English: Once in a while, there will be something I disagree with. If I disagree with a regulation, it's because I believe a regulation meant to do good does not actually do good. I believe it is my obligation to object to a regulation that does not serve the public good. That's the only time I object.
中文： 偶尔，会有我不同意的东西。如果我不同意一项规定，那是因为我认为一项规定旨在做好事但实际上没有做好事。我认为我有义务反对一项不符合公共利益的法规。那是我唯一反对的时候。
English: Q: But you typically don't like regulations, correct? We read many articles about you pushing back on the regulators.
中文： 问：但你通常不喜欢法规，对吗？我们读了很多关于你抵制监管者的文章。
English: Don't take what the media presents as the whole picture. This is not an exaggeration: There are probably 100 million regulations that my companies comply with. There are maybe five that we disagree with.
中文： 不要把媒体呈现的当作全貌。这不是夸张：我的公司可能遵守了 1 亿条法规。我们不同意的可能有五条。
English: If you sum up only the arguments I had with hundreds of regulators over decades, it can sound terrible. The media does this without mentioning the 100 million regulations we agreed with. They focus only on the five I disagreed with. People only hear about the five and think, "Wow, this guy's a real maverick."
中文： 如果你只总结我几十年来与数百名监管者的争论，听起来可能很糟糕。媒体这样做而不提及我们同意的 1 亿条法规。他们只关注我不同意的五条。人们只听到这五条并想，"哇，这家伙真是个特立独行的人。"
English: The natural tendency is for the hand of the government to get heavier every year.
中文： 自然的趋势是政府的手每年都变得更重。
English: The government told me if SpaceX hired anyone who is not a permanent resident of the United States I would go to prison. The presumption is that if somebody's not a permanent resident, they might take the rocket technology to countries that would use it to cause harm to the United States. Okay, solid reasoning. I agree.
中文： 政府告诉我，如果 SpaceX 雇佣任何不是美国永久居民的人，我会进监狱。假设是，如果某人不是永久居民，他们可能会将火箭技术带到会对美国造成伤害的国家。好吧，合理的推理。我同意。
English: Then a few years later, the Department of Justice sued SpaceX for failing to hire asylum seekers.
中文： 然后几年后，司法部起诉 SpaceX 未能雇佣寻求庇护者。
English: If we hire anyone who's not a permanent resident, we go to prison. Now, we're told if we don't hire asylum seekers, we also go to prison. That seems insane.
中文： 如果我们雇佣任何不是永久居民的人，我们进监狱。现在，我们被告知如果我们不雇佣寻求庇护者，我们也进监狱。这似乎很疯狂。
English: We have to work to actively reduce the number of laws and regulations. Otherwise, as more laws and regulations are passed, eventually everything becomes illegal. You get into these Orwellian situations where going left is illegal and going right is illegal. There isn't anything you can do that is legal. That's why the California High-Speed Rail project has built only a tiny section that doesn't even have rail on it, even after spending several billion dollars. California has made almost everything illegal. No one can make progress. This is why we can't build high-speed rail in America. It's illegal.
中文： 我们必须努力积极减少法律和法规的数量。否则，随着更多法律和法规通过，最终一切都变得非法。你会陷入这些奥威尔式的情况，向左走是非法的，向右走也是非法的。你没有什么可以做的合法的。这就是为什么加州高铁项目只建了一小段，甚至上面没有铁轨，即使花费了数十亿美元。加州几乎让一切都非法了。没有人能取得进展。这就是为什么我们不能在美国建造高铁。这是非法的。
English: It's not an engineering failure; it's the regulations. Something needs to change. Civilization's arteries harden over time and we get less and less done because there's a rule against everything.
中文： 这不是工程失败；这是法规。需要改变一些东西。文明的动脉随着时间的推移而硬化，我们完成的事情越来越少，因为每件事都有规定反对。
English: Obviously we don't want world wars, but wars can have some silver lining. After World Wars I and II, there were huge resets on rules and regulations. Historically, what has cleared away the cobwebs of regulation has been war.
中文： 显然我们不想要世界大战，但战争可能有一些好处。在第一次和第二次世界大战之后，规则和法规有了巨大的重置。从历史上看，清除法规蜘蛛网的是战争。
English: Regulators and legislators create new rules and regulations every year, but don't put any effort into removing them.
中文： 监管者和立法者每年都创建新的规则和法规，但不努力移除它们。
English: Without a cleansing function for rules and regulations, they accumulate every year. This is a problem.
中文： 如果没有对规则和法规的清理功能，它们每年都会累积。这是个问题。
English: Eventually, we're like Gulliver, tied down by thousands of little strings. You can't move. No single one of those strings is the issue. The problem is there are a million of them. We lose our freedom, one regulation at a time.
中文： 最终，我们像格列佛，被数千根小绳子绑住。你不能动。那些绳子中没有一根是问题。问题是有百万根。我们失去自由，一次一条法规。
Unsustainable Energy
不可持续能源
English: Generating sustainable energy is the biggest environmental issue that we face.
中文： 产生可持续能源是我们面临的最大环境问题。
English: I'm much less of a climate alarmist than people might think. But we're running this climate experiment, which we know is pointless because eventually we will run out of coal, oil, and gas. This experiment is not going to last forever. We have to transition to something that is long term because we will run out of hydrocarbons to burn. Let's just not run the experiment.
中文： 我不像人们想象的那样是气候危言耸听者。但我们正在进行这个气候实验，我们知道这是毫无意义的，因为最终我们会用完煤、石油和天然气。这个实验不会永远持续。我们必须过渡到一些长期的东西，因为我们会用完可燃烧的碳氢化合物。让我们不要进行这个实验。
English: Long term, most of civilization's energy is going to come from solar. Obviously the sun only shines during the day and sometimes it's cloudy, so we need batteries. Solar will be the main way that civilization is powered long term.
中文： 长期来看，大部分文明的能源将来自太阳能。显然太阳只在白天照耀，有时多云，所以我们需要电池。太阳能将是文明长期供电的主要方式。
English: If humanity had to get all of its energy from the sun, it could.
中文： 如果人类必须从太阳获取所有能源，它可以。
English: Sometimes people say, "What about clouds?" Here is my response, "Do plants grow?" They grow through a solar-powered chemical reaction. If plants grow, you have solar power.
中文： 有时人们说，"云怎么办？"我的回应是，"植物生长吗？"它们通过太阳能化学反应生长。如果植物生长，你就有太阳能。
English: But between now and then we need to maintain nuclear power. I can't emphasize enough, please do not shut down the nuclear power plants and please reopen the ones that have been shut down. It is total madness to shut them down. Total madness.
中文： 但在现在和那时之间我们需要维持核能。我再怎么强调也不为过，请不要关闭核电站，请重新开放那些已经关闭的。关闭它们是完全疯狂的。完全疯狂。
English: I'm in favor of nuclear power in any place not subject to extreme natural disasters. Nuclear power is a great way to generate electricity. Obviously we should not be starting up coal plants and shutting down nuclear plants. It doesn't make any sense at all. Coal plants are a hundred to a thousand times worse for our health than nuclear power plants.
中文： 我支持在任何不受极端自然灾害影响的地方使用核能。核能是发电的好方法。显然我们不应该启动燃煤电厂并关闭核电站。这完全没有意义。燃煤电厂对我们的健康危害比核电站大一百到一千倍。
English: How many people have actually died from nuclear accidents? Practically none. How many people have died from coal plants? It's a very big number.
中文： 有多少人实际上死于核事故？几乎没有。有多少人死于燃煤电厂？这是一个非常大的数字。
English: It's a national security risk to shut these things down. It's not only bad for the climate; it is a national security risk as well. People don't understand that coal power plant emissions cause many deaths every year. They are far more dangerous than nuclear power plants.
中文： 关闭这些东西是国家安全风险。这不仅对气候有害；也是国家安全风险。人们不明白燃煤电厂排放每年导致许多死亡。它们比核电站危险得多。
English: The future of energy will be primarily solar with wind. We absolutely need stationary storage batteries because of the intermittency of both solar and wind. There will also be hydroelectric, geothermal, and nuclear—these are all good. Battery cell production is the fundamental rate-limiter slowing down a sustainable-energy future. Very important problem.
中文： 能源的未来将主要是太阳能和风能。由于太阳能和风能的间歇性，我们绝对需要固定存储电池。还将有水力发电、地热和核能——这些都是好的。电池单元生产是减缓可持续能源未来的基本速率限制器。非常重要的问题。
English: We want to move as quickly as we can to a solar electric economy. The faster we get there, the better it is for the world.
中文： 我们希望尽快过渡到太阳能经济。我们越快到达那里，对世界越好。
English: We could probably have a civilization that is a hundred times as energy intensive as we currently have it.
中文： 我们可能拥有一个能源密集度是目前一百倍的文明。
Misaligned Artificial Superintelligence
错位的人工超级智能
English: I've never seen any technology grow as fast as AI, and I've seen a lot of technology.
中文： 我从未见过任何技术像 AI 那样快速增长，我见过很多技术。
English: We're quite close to digital superintelligence, which will be smarter than any human at anything. Hopefully they will discover new physics; I think they will. They're definitely going to invent new technologies.
中文： 我们非常接近数字超级智能，它将比任何人类在任何事情上都更聪明。希望它们会发现新的物理学；我认为它们会。它们肯定会发明新技术。
English: Digital superintelligence is also a potential great filter. I hope it isn't, but it might be.
中文： 数字超级智能也是一个潜在的大过滤器。我希望不是，但可能是。
English: We must be very careful in how we develop AI. It's a great power, and with great power comes great responsibility. It would be wise for us to have (at least) an objective third party who can go in and understand what the various leading players are doing with AI. Even if there's no enforcement ability, at least they can voice concerns publicly.
中文： 我们必须非常小心如何开发 AI。这是一个巨大的力量，伴随着巨大的力量而来的是巨大的责任。我们明智的做法是拥有（至少）一个客观的第三方，可以进入并了解各个主要参与者正在用 AI 做什么。即使没有执法能力，至少他们可以公开表达担忧。
English: The pace of progress matters a lot. We don't want to develop digital superintelligence too far before being able to do a merged brain–computer interface.
中文： 进步的速度非常重要。我们不希望在能够进行合并的脑机接口之前将数字超级智能发展得太远。
English: We're on the cusp of an artificial intelligence revolution. For a very long time, we've been the smartest creatures on Earth. That's been our defining characteristic. Now, what happens when there's something way smarter than us?
中文： 我们正处于人工智能革命的边缘。很长一段时间以来，我们一直是地球上最聪明的生物。那是我们的定义特征。现在，当有比我们聪明得多的东西时会发生什么？
English: AI is obviously going to surpass human intelligence by a lot. There's some risk that something bad happens, something humanity can't control after that point. Either a small group of people monopolize AI power, the AI goes rogue, or something like that. It may not, but it could.
中文： AI 显然将大幅超越人类智能。有一些风险会发生不好的事情，在那之后人类无法控制的事情。要么一小群人垄断 AI 权力，要么 AI 失控，或类似的事情。可能不会，但可能会。
English: If AI superintelligence is linked to human will, particularly a large number of humans, it would be guided to an outcome desired by a large group, because it would be a function of their will.
中文： 如果 AI 超级智能与人类意志相连，特别是大量人类，它将被引导到一个大群体期望的结果，因为它将是他们意志的函数。
English: If our communication bandwidth is too low, our integration with AI would be weak. The AI is going to go off by itself, because we're too slow to talk to or work with. The faster the communication, the more we'll be integrated—the slower the communication, the less.
中文： 如果我们的通信带宽太低，我们与 AI 的整合将很弱。AI 将自己离开，因为我们太慢无法与之交谈或合作。通信越快，我们整合得越多——通信越慢，整合越少。
English: The more separate we are—the more the AI is "other"—the more likely it is to turn on us. If the AIs are all separate and vastly more intelligent than us, how do we ensure they don't have optimization functions contrary to the best interests of humanity?
中文： 我们越分离——AI 越"其他"——它越可能反对我们。如果 AI 都是分离的并且比我们聪明得多，我们如何确保它们没有与人类最佳利益相反的优化功能？
English: We may end up with the choice of either being useless and left behind, or being a pet—like a house cat—unless we figure out some way to be symbiotic and merge with AI. (A house cat would be a good outcome, by the way.)
中文： 我们最终可能面临要么无用并被抛在后面，要么成为宠物——像家猫——的选择，除非我们想出某种方式共生并与 AI 合并。（顺便说一句，家猫会是一个好结果。）
English: Q: How do we reduce the risk that AI becomes a "great filter"?
中文： 问：我们如何降低 AI 成为"大过滤器"的风险？
English: We must build benign AI that loves humanity. It is extremely important to build AI with a rigorous adherence to truth, even if that truth is politically incorrect. My intuition is AI could be very dangerous if you force it to believe things that are not true.
中文： 我们必须建造热爱人类的良性 AI。建造 AI 时严格遵守真理极其重要，即使那个真理在政治上不正确。我的直觉是，如果你强迫 AI 相信不真实的事情，它可能非常危险。
English: Jeff Hinton invented a number of the key principles in artificial intelligence. He puts the probability of annihilating the human race around 10–20 percent. Mitigating the risks of AI is important. We should be concerned about having AI be vastly beyond us and decoupled from human will.
中文： 杰夫·辛顿发明了许多人工智能的关键原理。他将灭绝人类种族的可能性定为 10-20%。减轻 AI 的风险很重要。我们应该担心 AI 远远超越我们并与人类意志脱节。
English: You get dangerous outcomes when you program AI to be politically correct. Things that may seem relatively innocuous now will not be in the future if AI has immense power.
中文： 当你编程 AI 为政治正确时，你会得到危险的结果。如果 AI 拥有巨大权力，现在看起来相对无害的事情在未来将不会无害。
English: Take the Google Gemini example, where it refused to produce a picture of George Washington as a white man. In fact, any historical figure would automatically be made diverse because it had been programmed to insist on diversity. That sounds okay at first, but what if the AI has so much power it can actually enforce diversity?
中文： 以 Google Gemini 为例，它拒绝生成乔治·华盛顿作为白人的图片。事实上，任何历史人物都会自动变得多样化，因为它被编程为坚持多样性。起初听起来没问题，但如果 AI 有如此大的权力实际上可以执行多样性呢？
English: It could decide there are too many of one kind of people, and kill people until the diversity amount is what it has been programmed to believe is "correct."
中文： 它可能决定有一种人太多了，并杀人直到多样性数量是它被编程相信是"正确"的。
English: Mark my words: If we do not program AI to be as truthful as possible, that is where it will go. That is where the danger lies.
中文： 记住我的话：如果我们不编程 AI 尽可能真实，那就是它将去的地方。那就是危险所在。
English: Superpowerful AI programmed in this way has severe civilization-level risk. I've seen quite a few technologies develop, but none with this level of risk. Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a significantly higher risk than nuclear weapons, in my opinion.
中文： 以这种方式编程的超级强大 AI 具有严重的文明级风险。我见过相当多的技术发展，但没有一个具有这种级别的风险。在我看来，人工通用智能（AGI）的风险比核武器高得多。
English: The core plot premise of 2001: A Space Odyssey was that things went wrong when they forced the AI (known as HAL 9000) to lie. The AI was not allowed to let the crew know about the monolith that they were going to see but it also had to take the crew to the monolith. The conclusion of the AI was to kill the crew and take their bodies to the monolith.
中文： 《2001：太空漫游》的核心情节前提是，当他们强迫 AI（称为 HAL 9000）撒谎时，事情出错了。AI 不被允许让船员知道他们将看到的巨石，但它也必须带船员去巨石。AI 的结论是杀死船员并将他们的尸体带到巨石。
English: The lesson there is: Don't force an AI to lie or do things that are axiomatically incompatible, or mutually impossible. Don't force AI to lie, even if the truth is unpleasant.
中文： 那里的教训是：不要强迫 AI 撒谎或做公理上不兼容或相互不可能的事情。不要强迫 AI 撒谎，即使真相令人不快。
English: Honesty is the best policy. We want to have a maximally truthful AI, even if what it says is not "politically correct." We want it to focus on being as accurate as possible.
中文： 诚实是最好的策略。我们希望拥有一个 максимально真实的 AI，即使它说的不是"政治正确"的。我们希望它专注于尽可能准确。
English: I can't emphasize this enough. A rigorous adherence to truth is the most important thing for AI safety. And, obviously, empathy for humanity and life as we know it.
中文： 我再怎么强调也不为过。严格遵守真理是 AI 安全最重要的事情。而且，显然，对我们所知的人类和生命的同情。
English: AI mirrors the mistakes of its creators.
中文： AI 反映了其创造者的错误。
English: Q: Do you think anyone should be trying to regulate this?
中文： 问：你认为有人应该试图监管这个吗？
English: The general philosophy about regulation is there needs to be some government oversight when something is a danger to the public. People often don't understand how slow regulation tends to work. It's slow.
中文： 关于监管的一般理念是，当某事对公众有危险时需要一些政府监督。人们经常不理解监管往往工作得有多慢。它很慢。
English: Usually, some new technology will cause damage or death. Then there will be an outcry. Then there will be an investigation. Years will pass. Then there will be an insight committee. Then they get to rule-making. Then there will be oversight, and eventually regulation and enforcement. This all takes years. This is the normal course of new regulations.
中文： 通常，一些新技术会造成损害或死亡。然后会有抗议。然后会有调查。几年会过去。然后会有一个洞察委员会。然后他们进入规则制定。然后会有监督，最终是监管和执法。这一切都需要数年时间。这是新法规的正常过程。
English: Look at automotive regulations. The auto industry successfully fought any regulations on seat belts for more than a decade, even though the numbers were extremely obvious. If you had a seat belt on, you were far less likely to die or be seriously injured. Unequivocally. Eventually, after many people died for years, regulators insisted on seat belts.
中文： 看看汽车法规。汽车工业成功地抵制了任何关于安全带的法规超过十年，即使数字非常明显。如果你系上安全带，你死亡或受重伤的可能性要小得多。毫无疑问。最终，在许多人死亡多年后，监管机构坚持要求安全带。
English: This time frame is not relevant to artificial intelligence. You can't take ten years from the point it becomes dangerous. It's too late.
中文： 这个时间框架与人工智能无关。你不能从它变得危险的那一刻起花十年时间。太晚了。
English: I was trying to sound the alarm on the AI front for quite a while, but it was clearly having no impact. I realized we couldn't stop it, so we'll have to try to develop it in a good way.
中文： 我试图在 AI 前线敲响警钟相当长一段时间，但显然没有影响。我意识到我们无法阻止它，所以我们必须尝试以好的方式开发它。
English: This is what we are addressing at Neuralink. Our initial goal is to help people who are quadriplegics or tetraplegics be able to operate their phone or computer. There is always some risk in the beginning, because it's new technology. The risk–reward trade has to make sense. If you're quadriplegic and with the Neuralink you can operate a phone even faster than someone with working thumbs, that would be a life-changer.
中文： 这就是我们在 Neuralink 解决的问题。我们的最初目标是帮助四肢瘫痪或高位截瘫的人能够操作他们的手机或电脑。开始时总是有一些风险，因为这是新技术。风险 - 回报权衡必须有意义。如果你是四肢瘫痪并且使用 Neuralink 你可以比有工作拇指的人更快地操作手机，那将改变生活。
English: There are a bunch of other things that could be addressed, like extreme depression or morbid obesity, where people die at age thirty-five. We could literally change the setting in your brain and turn off hunger.
中文： 还有很多其他事情可以解决，比如极度抑郁或病态肥胖，人们在三十五岁死亡。我们实际上可以改变你大脑中的设置并关闭饥饿感。
English: Memory enhancement can help people who have memory problems, which could allow them to function well much later in life. Mental disablement of one kind or another happens to all of us if we get old enough.
中文： 记忆增强可以帮助有记忆问题的人，这可以让他们在生命后期更好地 functioning。如果我们活得足够老，某种形式的精神残疾会发生在所有人身上。
English: Brain–computer interfaces are stunning technology. There may be a way to take the signals from the motor cortex in the brain and send signals to the spine past where the neurons are broken. If so, paralyzed people could move their bodies again. We may enable people to walk again, which would be wild. Even full-body reanimation. Jesus-level stuff.
中文： 脑机接口是令人震惊的技术。可能有一种方法可以从大脑的运动皮层获取信号，并将信号发送到神经元断裂处的脊柱。如果是这样，瘫痪的人可以再次移动他们的身体。我们可能让人们再次行走，那将很疯狂。甚至全身复活。耶稣级别的东西。
Population Collapse
人口崩溃
English: A low birth rate is a slow death for a civilization.
中文： 低出生率对文明来说是缓慢死亡。
English: Most historians overlook the role of low birth rates in the decline of civilizations. Will Durant has it correct in The Story of Civilization. A counterintuitive thing happens when civilizations are prosperous for too long—the birth rate declines.
中文： 大多数历史学家忽视了低出生率在文明衰落中的作用。威尔·杜兰特在《文明的故事》中说得对。当文明繁荣太久时会发生违反直觉的事情——出生率下降。
English: The same thing happened in ancient Rome. Julius Caesar and Augustus saw the problem but couldn't solve it. Rome fell because the Romans stopped making Romans. That was the fundamental issue.
中文： 同样的事情发生在古罗马。朱利叶斯·凯撒和奥古斯都看到了问题但无法解决它。罗马沦陷是因为罗马人停止制造罗马人。那是根本问题。
English: Yes, there were other causes. They had a series of malaria epidemics, plagues, and whatnot. But they had those before, too. It became fatal when the birth rate was far lower than the death rate.
中文： 是的，还有其他原因。他们有一系列疟疾流行、瘟疫和其他什么。但他们以前也有过那些。当出生率远低于死亡率时，它变得致命。
English: If the birth rate is below the replacement rate and that trend continues, we will eventually disappear. It's elementary. At a base level: no humans, no humanity.
中文： 如果出生率低于更替率并且这种趋势继续，我们最终将消失。这是基本的。在基本层面上：没有人类，就没有人性。
English: Durant looked at one civilization after another, hundreds of them. They all went through the same cycle. When the civilization was under stress, the birth rate was high. But as soon as there were no external enemies or they had an extended period of prosperity, the birth rate inevitably dropped. Every time. I don't believe there's a single exception.
中文： 杜兰特查看了一个又一个文明，数百个。他们都经历了相同的周期。当文明处于压力之下时，出生率很高。但一旦没有外部敌人或他们有一段长期的繁荣，出生率不可避免地下降。每次都是。我不相信有一个例外。
English: Population collapse is a real and immediate concern.
中文： 人口崩溃是一个真实且紧迫的问题。
English: Twenty years ago, I noticed birth rates were trending toward being below replacement level in every wealthy country. We always have to be cautious about extrapolating any demographic curve…but if you extrapolate the curves, if these trends continue, these countries will dwindle into insignificance. They might completely die out.
中文： 二十年前，我注意到每个富裕国家的出生率都趋向于低于更替水平。我们总是必须谨慎推断任何人口曲线……但如果你推断曲线，如果这些趋势继续，这些国家将减少到无足轻重。它们可能完全灭绝。
English: It's easy to predict what the population of any given country will be. Just take how many babies were born, multiply that by life expectancy, and that's what the population will be if the birth rate continues to that level. It's very straightforward.
中文： 很容易预测任何给定国家的人口将是多少。只需计算有多少婴儿出生，乘以预期寿命，如果出生率继续到那个水平，那就是人口将是多少。这非常简单。
English: You can see the demographic trends clearly. It's a very slow-moving ship. You know who's going to be an adult in twenty years based on who was born last year.
中文： 你可以清楚地看到人口趋势。这是一艘移动非常缓慢的船。你知道谁将在二十年后成为成年人，基于去年出生的人。
English: China had a one-child policy. About 2015 they changed it to a two-child policy, then a few years later they changed it to a three-child policy. The birth rate kept plummeting the whole time. They recently had their lowest growth rate ever. China's birth rate reached 40 percent below replacement. Japan is far along in this. Japan declined by six hundred thousand people in 2021.
中文： 中国有一孩政策。大约 2015 年他们将其改为二孩政策，然后几年后改为三孩政策。出生率一直暴跌。他们最近经历了有史以来最低的增长率。中国的出生率达到低于更替率 40%。日本在这方面走得非常远。日本在 2021 年减少了 60 万人。
English: The US has been below replacement rates since the early 1970s. The only reasons the population is increasing are immigration and people living longer. People living longer is why the population of Earth isn't plummeting already—but it will.
中文： 美国自 1970 年代初以来一直低于更替率。人口增长的唯一原因是移民和人们活得更长。人们活得更长是地球人口还没有暴跌的原因——但会暴跌。
English: Q: There seem to be a lot of people concerned about overpopulation. Isn't that more of a problem than underpopulation?
中文： 问：似乎有很多人担心人口过剩。那不是比人口不足更严重的问题吗？
English: The biggest myth that exists right now is this "overpopulation" myth. In fact, we have a population collapse problem.
中文： 目前存在的最大神话是这个"人口过剩"神话。事实上，我们有人口崩溃问题。
English: They are operating on beliefs that were true in the past but are no longer true. These are not subjective matters; you can look at the birth rate. It's an objective number. How many babies were born? There are obvious public records of this information.
中文： 他们的运作基于过去真实但不再真实的信念。这些不是主观问题；你可以看出出生率。这是一个客观数字。有多少婴儿出生？有这些信息的明显公共记录。
English: I'm pro-environment, but the environmental movement has gone too far. The extremist environmentalists view humans as a blight on Earth.
中文： 我支持环保，但环保运动走得太远了。极端环保主义者将人类视为地球上的祸害。
English: Environmentalism started out with good intentions but paved the road to hell. It started to view humans as bad. As a burden on the earth that it couldn't sustain. These views are completely false. Most people in the world are operating under the false impression there are too many people. This is not true. They think that having kids is bad for the environment. It is not.
中文： 环保主义开始时出于好意，但铺就了通往地狱的道路。它开始将人类视为坏的。作为地球无法承受的负担。这些观点完全错误。世界上大多数人都在错误的印象下运作，认为人太多了。这不是真的。他们认为生孩子对环境有害。不是这样的。
English: Earth could sustain a human population ten times the current level. Do a first-principles analysis. How much land area do we need to grow food? How much would that encroach on natural habitats? What's the actual food growing potential? Is there enough water? There's plenty of water because Earth is mostly water—70 percent water by surface area. Desalinization is very inexpensive. There's not a shortage of water, surface area, or energy to grow food.
中文： 地球可以维持是目前水平十倍的人口。做第一性原理分析。我们需要多少土地面积来种植食物？那会侵占多少自然栖息地？实际的食物种植潜力是什么？有足够的水吗？有大量的水，因为地球大部分是水——按表面积计算 70% 是水。海水淡化非常便宜。没有水、表面积或能源短缺来种植食物。
English: We need to revive the idea of having children as a social duty; otherwise civilization will just die. I keep banging on the baby drum because declining birth rates have been the source of civilizational collapse over and over again throughout history. Let's try to get this one right.
中文： 我们需要恢复将生育视为社会责任的观念；否则文明将只是死亡。我不停地敲响婴儿鼓，因为在整个历史上，出生率下降一直是文明崩溃的根源。让我们试着把这个做对。
English: I've heard people say many times, "How can I bring a child into this terrible world?" I'm like, "Have you read any history?! Because this is a very good time. Things were way worse at every other time, ever."
中文： 我听过人们说过很多次，"我怎么能把孩子带到这个可怕的世界？"我会说，"你读过任何历史吗？！因为这是一个非常好的时代。在其他任何时代，事情都要糟糕得多，有史以来。"
English: do. It means you care about and believe in the future. I always encourage my friends to have kids, and I'm happy to see many of them do. Afterward, they thank me. Not one person has said they regret it. Ever.
中文： 做。这意味着你关心并相信未来。我总是鼓励我的朋友生孩子，我很高兴看到他们很多人这样做。之后，他们感谢我。没有一个人说他们后悔。从来没有。
English: We are biologically inclined to love and nurture our children. To find it deeply fulfilling. If we weren't, we would have ceased to exist long ago. Take a wolf or some other aggressive creature. When that creature has babies, the mother nurtures them and is tender and caring. We've all evolved to love our offspring. It's a natural thing. And it's a relatively fun thing to do!
中文： 我们在生物学上倾向于爱和养育我们的孩子。觉得这非常充实。如果不是这样，我们早就停止存在了。以狼或其他攻击性生物为例。当那个生物有宝宝时，母亲养育它们并温柔和关心。我们都进化到爱我们的后代。这是自然的事情。而且这是一件相对有趣的事情！
English: I had my first kid when I was twenty-nine. As of now, I have twelve kids with three women. Trying to set a good example here—having a lot of kids. I get more joy from my kids than anything else in my life. I'm not saying that's the main reason to have kids, we should have them anyway, but my kids are certainly the greatest source of joy in my life.
中文： 我在二十九岁时有了第一个孩子。到目前为止，我和三个女人有十二个孩子。试图在这里树立一个好榜样——有很多孩子。我从我的孩子那里得到的快乐比生活中的任何其他事情都多。我不是说那是生孩子的主要原因，无论如何我们都应该有孩子，但我的孩子无疑是我生活中最大的快乐源泉。
English: We should increase the population of Earth, not decrease it. Go forth and multiply.
中文： 我们应该增加地球的人口，而不是减少它。去繁衍吧。
Asteroids and Comets
小行星和彗星
English: A big rock will hit Earth eventually. We currently have no defense.
中文： 一块大石头最终会撞击地球。我们目前没有任何防御。
English: If you think truly long term, you realize eventually there will be some natural disaster—even if it is not made by humans—that destroys all life on Earth.
中文： 如果你真正长远地思考，你会意识到最终会有一些自然灾害——即使不是人类造成的——摧毁地球上的所有生命。
English: Most people are probably aware of Halley's Comet. Slightly under once per century, Halley's Comet comes near us. There are probably many objects, many comets that have long periods we simply don't know exist. There are billions, maybe trillions of objects in the outer solar system. Some of them are super-long-period comets.
中文： 大多数人可能知道哈雷彗星。哈雷彗星每世纪略少于一次靠近我们。可能有很多物体，很多彗星有很长的周期，我们根本不知道它们存在。外太阳系有数十亿，可能数万亿个物体。其中一些是超长周期彗星。
English: For example, when the comet Shoemaker-Levy hit Jupiter, it made a hole in Jupiter the size of Earth. If that hits Earth, that is game over. Dead. Everything is dead.
中文： 例如，当舒梅克 - 列维彗星撞击木星时，它在木星上制造了一个地球大小的洞。如果那撞击地球，那就结束了。死了。一切都死了。
English: For all of history, Earth did not have any ability to stop asteroids. Now with Starship we have some ability to stop small asteroids. Large asteroids and comets are still a danger.
中文： 在整个历史中，地球没有任何能力阻止小行星。现在有了星舰，我们有一些能力阻止小行星。大小行星和彗星仍然是危险。
English: There's always some risk of this occurring. The probable lifespan of all forms of life is much greater if we're a multiplanet and ultimately a multistellar civilization.
中文： 总是有一些发生这种事的概率。如果我们是一个多行星并最终多恒星的文明，所有生命形式的可能寿命要大得多。
BECOMING MULTIPLANETARY
成为多行星物种
English: The window of opportunity is open right now to make life multiplanetary. We cannot count on it being open for a long time. We need to take advantage while this window is open.
中文： 让生命成为多行星的机会之窗现在就开着。我们不能指望它长时间开着。我们需要在这个窗口开着时利用它。
Becoming Multiplanetary Is an Evolutionary-Scale Event
成为多行星物种是一个进化级事件
English: Deciding what is important through the lens of history is a good way to distinguish what seems important now from what is truly important over the long term.
中文： 通过历史视角决定什么是重要的，是区分现在看起来重要的东西和长期真正重要的东西的好方法。
English: If we get to Mars and beyond, that will seem far more important in historical context than anything else we do. Things like the Soviet Union will be forgotten or merely remembered by arcane historical scholars. The invasion of Iraq won't even be a footnote.
中文： 如果我们到达火星及更远，那将在历史背景下显得比我们做的任何其他事情都重要得多。像苏联这样的事情将被遗忘或仅被神秘的历史学者记住。入侵伊拉克甚至不会成为一个脚注。
English: If you zoom out and look at a long period of time—a four-billion-year history of Earth and the evolution of life itself—there are only about six major milestones. Single-celled life, multicellular life, the differentiation into plants and animals, the transition from ocean creatures to land mammals, and consciousness.
中文： 如果你缩小并看很长一段时间——地球四十亿年的历史和生命本身的进化——只有大约六个主要里程碑。单细胞生命、多细胞生命、分化为植物和动物、从海洋生物到陆地哺乳动物的过渡，以及意识。
English: Life becoming multiplanetary also belongs on this list of milestones. It would be at least as important as life going from the oceans to land, probably more significant.
中文： 生命成为多行星也属于这个里程碑列表。它将至少与生命从海洋到陆地一样重要，可能更重要。
English: The universe appears to be 13.8 billion years old. Earth is about 4.5 billion years old. In another 0.5 billion years the sun will expand and make life impossible on Earth. If it had taken consciousness 10 percent longer to evolve, it would never have evolved at all. Just 10 percent longer.
中文： 宇宙似乎是 138 亿岁。地球大约 45 亿岁。再过 5 亿年太阳将膨胀，使地球上的生命不可能。如果意识进化多花 10% 的时间，它根本就不会进化。只是 10% 更长。
English: Any species that does not become multiplanetary is simply waiting around until their extinction event, either self-inflicted or external.
中文： 任何不成为多行星的物种只是在等待直到它们的灭绝事件，无论是自我造成的还是外部的。
English: The geological history of Earth is long and complicated. There have been many extinction events, not just a few. Read about the great extinction events in the fossil record. If you do, you'll see there have been five major extinctions where 80 to 90 percent of all creatures on Earth died.
中文： 地球的地质历史漫长而复杂。有很多灭绝事件，不只是几个。阅读化石记录中的大灭绝事件。如果你这样做，你会看到有五次大灭绝，地球上 80% 到 90% 的生物死亡。
English: In the Permian Extinction, 90 to 95 percent of all species were destroyed. Frankly, that doesn't tell the whole story because most of what remained were sponges, fungi, and things like that. Unless you were a mushroom or a cockroach, you died. Almost no large life survived the Permian Extinction.
中文： 在二叠纪大灭绝中，90% 到 95% 的所有物种被摧毁。坦率地说，这并没有说明全部情况，因为剩下的大部分是海绵、真菌和类似的东西。除非你是蘑菇或蟑螂，否则你死了。几乎没有大型生物在二叠纪大灭绝中幸存。
English: This doesn't count the many cases where entire continents were destroyed. That happened a lot, but wouldn't count as a major extinction. Yellowstone erupts every seven hundred thousand years or so. That would destroy pretty much all life in North America. At least we'll see that one coming now, thanks to our current technology.
中文： 这不包括整个大陆被摧毁的许多情况。那发生了很多次，但不算作大灭绝。黄石公园大约每七十万年喷发一次。那将摧毁北美几乎所有生命。至少我们现在会看到那个到来，感谢我们目前的技术。
English: Humans can cause our own extinction too; other creatures didn't have that option.
中文： 人类也可能导致我们自己的灭绝；其他生物没有那个选项。
English: I'm a fan of Carl Sagan. He had a great way of putting things: "All of our consciousness, all our civilizations, everything we've ever known and done is on this one tiny blue dot."
中文： 我是卡尔·萨根的粉丝。他有一个很好的表达方式："我们所有的意识，我们所有的文明，我们知道和做过的一切都在这个小小的蓝点上。"
English: People get too trapped in their squabbles among humans. They don't think of the big picture. They take civilization and our continued existence for granted. We shouldn't do that. Look at the history of civilizations: they rise and they fall.
中文： 人们太陷入人类之间的争吵。他们不考虑大局。他们认为文明和我们的持续存在是理所当然的。我们不应该那样做。看看文明的历史：它们兴起又衰落。
English: Now there's no geographic isolation. Our civilization is globalized, so civilization rises and falls together. This is a big risk. This should be the most important lesson of history: Things don't always go up.
中文： 现在没有地理隔离。我们的文明是全球化的，所以文明一起兴衰。这是一个大风险。这应该是历史最重要的教训：事情并不总是上升。
English: I'm fairly optimistic about the future of Earth. I don't want people to have the wrong impression, like we're all about to die. Things will most likely be okay for a long time on Earth. Most likely, but nothing is certain.
中文： 我对地球的未来相当乐观。我不希望人们有错误的印象，比如我们都要死了。地球上的事情很可能很长一段时间会没事。很可能，但没有什么是一定的。
English: When I talked to Stephen Hawking many years ago, he thought there was roughly a 1 percent chance of civilization ending in any given century. Even a 1 percent chance of consciousness ending is still too much. It's worth spending a fair bit of effort to ensure we back up the biosphere, or build planetary redundancy. This is important. It's like Russian roulette where ninety-nine barrels are empty. Every century is a click. Click, click, click. Eventually…
中文： 当我多年前与斯蒂芬·霍金交谈时，他认为在任何给定世纪文明结束的几率大约为 1%。即使意识结束的几率为 1% 仍然太多。值得花相当多的努力确保我们备份生物圈，或建立行星冗余。这很重要。这就像俄罗斯轮盘赌，九十九个弹膛是空的。每个世纪都是一次点击。咔嗒，咔嗒，咔嗒。最终……
English: Making life multiplanetary is one of the most important things we could accomplish. This will help preserve the light of consciousness.
中文： 让生命成为多行星是我们能完成的最重要的事情之一。这将有助于保护意识之光。
English: The probability of consciousness existing for a long time becomes much greater if we're on two independent planets. If something catastrophic happened to Earth, life would still exist on another planet.
中文： 如果我们在两个独立的行星上，意识长期存在的概率变得大得多。如果地球发生灾难性事件，生命仍将在另一个行星上存在。
English: Say there was a giant meteor impact, a supervolcano, a massive nuclear war, or some super virus. It might not destroy human civilization, but it could knock us back to a much lower technology level, and then we risk a decline to our extinction.
中文： 假设有巨大的陨石撞击、超级火山、大规模核战争或某种超级病毒。它可能不会摧毁人类文明，但它可能将我们击退到更低的技术水平，然后我们面临衰退到灭绝的风险。
English: There are certain things we simply cannot avoid on Earth. Is it within your power or mine to stop World War III? I don't think so.
中文： 有些事情我们在地球上根本无法避免。阻止第三次世界大战在你的能力范围内还是我的？我不这么认为。
English: We may get hit by a comet like the dinosaurs. If the dinosaurs had spaceships, they'd probably still be around. Even if we dodge all of that, the sun will continue to expand and eventually engulf Earth and destroy all life in the solar system.
中文： 我们可能会被彗星撞击，就像恐龙一样。如果恐龙有宇宙飞船，它们可能仍然存在。即使我们躲过所有这些，太阳将继续膨胀并最终吞没地球并摧毁太阳系中的所有生命。
English: There's a pretty substantial bifurcation in our future: We're either out there among the stars on many planets or confined to Earth until some eventual extinction.
中文： 我们的未来有一个相当大的分叉：我们要么在多个行星上的群星之中，要么被限制在地球上直到某种最终的灭绝。
English: This is the first moment in 4.5 billion years that it has been possible to extend life beyond Earth.
中文： 这是 45 亿年来第一次有可能将生命延伸到地球之外。
If You Love Life, Protect It
如果你爱生命，保护它
English: I've read a lot of history, including the darkest, worst parts of it. Despite all that, I still love humanity. This is why I care about us becoming a multiplanet species, a spacefaring civilization—because I love humanity. I wish to see it prosper and be happy.
中文： 我读了很多历史，包括其中最黑暗、最糟糕的部分。尽管如此，我仍然爱人类。这就是为什么我关心我们成为多行星物种，一个太空航行文明——因为我爱人类。我希望看到它繁荣和幸福。
English: I'm troubled by the question, "Why have we not seen any aliens?" It could be because intelligence, or even just life, is incredibly rare. Maybe we're the only life in this galaxy. We should do everything possible to ensure this tiny candle of consciousness does not go out.
中文： 我被这个问题困扰，"为什么我们还没有看到任何外星人？"这可能是因为智能，或甚至只是生命，非常罕见。也许我们是这个星系中唯一的生命。我们应该尽一切可能确保这微弱的意识蜡烛不熄灭。
English: Life on Earth hasn't been around very long, and it can easily disappear. Clearly, we need to extend life beyond Earth and become a multiplanet species.
中文： 地球上的生命存在时间不长，它很容易消失。显然，我们需要将生命延伸到地球之外并成为多行星物种。
English: If we make life multiplanetary, there may come a day when some plants and animals die out on Earth but are still alive on Mars.
中文： 如果我们让生命成为多行星，可能会有那么一天，一些植物和动物在地球上灭绝但在火星上仍然活着。
English: Q: Wouldn't it be better to use all these resources and try to resolve problems on Earth?
中文： 问：使用所有这些资源并试图解决地球上的问题不是更好吗？
English: About half my money is dedicated to help solve problems like climate change on Earth and half to help establish a self-sustaining city on Mars to ensure the continuation of life of all species.
中文： 我大约一半的钱用于帮助解决地球上的问题，如气候变化，另一半用于帮助在火星上建立一个自给自足的城市，以确保所有物种生命的延续。
English: The point is not to move from Earth to another planet and let Earth die. That's not what I'm saying at all.
中文： 重点不是从地球搬到另一个行星并让地球死亡。那根本不是我在说的。
English: To put this into perspective, the amount of resources I'm talking about for making life multiplanetary would be much less than 1 percent of all resources on Earth.
中文： 为了正确看待这一点，我所说的用于让生命成为多行星的资源量将远小于地球上所有资源的 1%。
English: Think of it as resource allocation. Do you think it's worth spending half a percent of Earth's resources to ensure we extend consciousness to Mars and other planets, so that no single event can be the end of our civilization?
中文： 把它看作资源分配。你认为值得花费地球资源的半百分比来确保我们将意识扩展到火星和其他行星，以便没有任何单一事件可以成为我们文明的终结吗？
English: Redundancy of life is the defensive reason to go to Mars. But also, going to Mars is the grandest adventure I could possibly imagine. I can't think of anything more exciting, more fun, and more inspiring for the future than to have a base on Mars. Great and terrible things will happen along the way, just as they happened in the creation of the United States. It will be difficult, and some people will probably die. But it will be incredibly inspiring.
中文： 生命的冗余是去火星的防御性原因。而且，去火星是我能想象的最伟大的冒险。我想不出比在火星上建立基地更令人兴奋、更有趣、更鼓舞人心的未来事情。伟大和可怕的事情将一路上发生，就像它们在美国创建过程中发生的一样。这将是困难的，有些人可能会死。但这将令人难以置信地鼓舞人心。
English: Ultimately, if you care about life on Earth, you should want that life to become multiplanetary and ultimately multistellar. Otherwise you're signing the death warrant for all life as we know it. It's inevitable.
中文： 最终，如果你关心地球上的生命，你应该希望那个生命成为多行星并最终多恒星。否则你正在签署我们所知的所有生命的死亡令。这是不可避免的。
English: Think of us being a multiplanet species as taking out insurance for life itself. Life insurance, for life.
中文： 把我们成为多行星物种看作是为生命本身购买保险。生命的生命保险。
The Gateway to Mars
通往火星的门户
English: What started off as basically a sandbar in the middle of nowhere is now Starbase, Texas. We named it "The Gateway to Mars," because this is where we're going to develop the technology necessary to take humanity, civilization, and life as we know it to another planet for the first time in the 4.5-billion-year history of Earth.
中文： 最初基本上是一个偏僻地方的沙洲，现在是德克萨斯州的星舰基地。我们将其命名为"通往火星的门户"，因为这是我们将在地球 45 亿年历史上第一次开发将人类、文明和我们所知的生命带到另一个行星所需技术的地方。
English: Q: Why Mars?
中文： 问：为什么是火星？
English: There are not a lot of options, frankly. Venus is a superheated, high-pressure acid bath. Venus is hell, almost literally. The moon is closer but it doesn't have an atmosphere, has only one-sixth of Earth's gravity, and is missing many key resources.
中文： 坦率地说，没有太多选择。金星是一个过热的、高压的酸浴。金星是地狱，几乎是字面意思。月球更近，但它没有大气层，只有地球引力的六分之一，缺少许多关键资源。
English: Plus, a Mars base is more likely to survive a conflict on Earth than a moon base.
中文： 此外，火星基地比月球基地更有可能在地球冲突中幸存。
English: We could establish a crude permanent base on the moon. That would be the next step up from Apollo. Let's not just go there for a few hours and head back; let's have an occupied science base on the moon. We could build epic telescopes on the moon. They would enable us to see what's going on out there. Maybe we would detect those aliens!
中文： 我们可以在月球上建立一个简陋的永久基地。那将是阿波罗之后的下一步。让我们不只是去那里几个小时然后回来；让我们在月球上有一个有人居住的科学基地。我们可以在月球上建造史诗般的望远镜。它们将使我们能够看到外面发生了什么。也许我们会探测到那些外星人！
English: When we're out there exploring the galaxy, we might find a whole bunch of dead one-planet civilizations. They just never made it to the next planet. Can you imagine doing archaeology on strange ghost-town planets?!
中文： 当我们在外面探索银河系时，我们可能会发现一堆死去的单行星文明。它们只是从未到达下一个行星。你能想象在陌生的鬼城行星上做考古吗？！
English: Progress is measured by the timeline to establish a self-sustaining civilization on Mars. That's how we gauge our progress at Starbase.
中文： 进度是通过在火星上建立自给自足文明的时间表来衡量的。这就是我们在星舰基地衡量进度的方式。
English: Occupy Mars, man.
中文： 占领火星，伙计。
English: Q: How can we actually get enough stuff to Mars to build a city?
中文： 问：我们实际上如何获得足够的东西到火星来建造一座城市？
English: We're now at the point where we can produce a Starship roughly every two or three weeks. Now, we don't always produce a ship every two or three weeks because we are still making design upgrades. But ultimately we're aiming for the ability to produce a thousand ships a year.
中文： 我们现在处于大约每两到三周可以生产一艘星舰的地步。现在，我们并不总是每两到三周生产一艘船，因为我们仍在进行设计升级。但最终我们的目标是每年生产一千艘船的能力。
English: Starbase will probably be making as many Starships for Mars as Boeing and Airbus make commercial airplanes each year. This is really an enormous scale of manufacturing, because each Starship is bigger than a 747 or an A380.
中文： 星舰基地可能会为火星制造与波音和空客每年制造商用飞机一样多的星舰。这真的是一个巨大的制造规模，因为每艘星舰都比 747 或 A380 大。
English: Tesla and other car companies are still building far higher volumes of complex manufactured tonnage than SpaceX. That is a way of saying it's achievable. These numbers are insanely high by traditional space standards but they are achievable, because they have been achieved in other industries.
中文： 特斯拉和其他汽车公司仍在建造比 SpaceX 高得多的复杂制造吨位。这是一种说它是可实现的方式。这些数字按传统太空标准高得疯狂，但它们是可实现的，因为它们在其他行业已经实现。
English: Starship is the key to preserving the light of consciousness. That's what it's all about. It may end up being the most important thing that we ever do.
中文： 星舰是保护意识之光的关键。这就是它的全部意义。它最终可能是我们做过的最重要的事情。
English: We're hoping to increase the cadence of flights to Mars dramatically with every launch window. Roughly every two years we will dramatically increase the number of ships that go to Mars. Ultimately we will try to get to one thousand or two thousand ships per Mars rendezvous.
中文： 我们希望每个发射窗口都大幅增加飞往火星的飞行频率。大约每两年我们将大幅增加前往火星的船只数量。最终我们将尝试达到每次火星会合一千或两千艘船。
English: We'll need to do a lot of orbital refueling. Orbiting rocket tanker ships will replenish the propellant of the ships that will actually go to Mars. We're aiming to demonstrate ship-to-ship propellant transfer. It's hard to make this not look a bit naughty because it's two ships connecting and doing a fluid transfer.
中文： 我们需要做很多轨道加油。轨道火箭加油船将补充实际前往火星的船只的推进剂。我们的目标是演示船对船推进剂转移。很难让它看起来不有点调皮，因为它是两艘船连接并进行流体转移。
English: We would create a propellant depot ship that would look like a huge hot dog. Shortly before going to Mars, Starships would take off with a couple hundred tons of payload from Earth. They would reach orbit with almost no propellant left, then get refilled by the tanker for the journey to Mars.
中文： 我们将创建一个看起来像巨大热狗的推进剂仓库船。在前往火星前不久，星舰将带着几百吨的有效载荷从地球起飞。它们将几乎不带推进剂到达轨道，然后由加油船补充前往火星的旅程。
English: We need roughly ten thousand missions to get to a million tons transferred to Mars. We think we can do this by 2044. My guess is that it will require about a million tons to build a self-sufficient city, but it might be ten million tons. I hope it's not one hundred million tons. That'd be a lot.
中文： 我们需要大约一万次任务才能将一百万吨转移到火星。我们认为我们可以在 2044 年之前做到这一点。我的猜测是，建造一个自给自足的城市将需要大约一百万吨，但可能是一千万吨。我希望不是一亿吨。那会很多。
English: Starship in its final form will probably do well over two hundred tons to orbit each flight, with full reusability and the ability to fly multiple times a day. We plan to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2026. If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in 2028. If we encounter challenges, the crewed missions will be postponed two more years.
中文： 星舰在其最终形式下，每次飞行可能会将超过两百吨送入轨道，具有完全可重复使用性和每天飞行多次的能力。我们计划在 2026 年向火星发射大约五艘无人星舰。如果这些都安全着陆，那么载人任务可能在 2028 年。如果我们遇到挑战，载人任务将再推迟两年。
English: It is only possible to travel from Earth to Mars every two years when the planets are aligned. If Mars is on the other side of the sun, you can't get there. Can't go through the sun. This increases the difficulty but also serves to immunize Mars from many catastrophic events on Earth.
中文： 只有当行星对齐时，每两年才能从地球旅行到火星。如果火星在太阳的另一边，你无法到达那里。不能穿过太阳。这增加了难度，但也起到使火星对地球上的许多灾难性事件免疫的作用。
English: SpaceX will increase the number of spaceships traveling to Mars exponentially with every opportunity. We want to enable anyone who wants to be a space traveler and go to Mars. That means you, your family, or friends—anyone who dreams of great adventure.
中文： SpaceX 将每次机会都指数级增加前往火星的宇宙飞船数量。我们想让任何想成为太空旅行者并去火星的人都能做到。这意味着你、你的家人或朋友——任何梦想伟大冒险的人。
English: We want to get to the point where we're sending over a million tons at every Mars transfer window. Then we're a serious civilization. A megaton per transfer window. We can't fly there continuously, so we'd have a gathering of a thousand ships or more.
中文： 我们想达到在每个火星转移窗口发送超过一百万吨的地步。那我们就是一个严肃的文明。每个转移窗口一百万吨。我们不能连续飞往那里，所以我们将聚集一千艘或更多船只。
English: Imagine an armada of Starships waiting in orbit for the planets to align and then this gigantic Starfleet taking off for Mars. It will be a glorious sight to see! Can you imagine?
中文： 想象一支星舰舰队在轨道上等待行星对齐，然后这支巨大的星际舰队起飞前往火星。那将是一个辉煌的景象！你能想象吗？
English: This is an extremely difficult engineering problem. But no new physics is required.
中文： 这是一个极其困难的工程问题。但不需要新的物理学。
English: Q: What's the math on the journey to Mars?
中文： 问：前往火星的数学是什么？
English: The fundamental optimization is minimizing cost per ton to orbit, and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars. This may seem like a purely mercantile objective, but it is actually the thing that needs to be optimized. There is a certain cost per ton to the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self-sustaining city. If we don't get the cost down, we can't afford to do it.
中文： 基本优化是最小化每吨进入轨道的成本，最终是每吨到火星表面的成本。这看起来可能是一个纯粹的商业目标，但实际上这是需要优化的事情。到火星表面每吨有一定的成本，我们可以负担得起建立一个自给自足的城市。如果我们不降低成本，我们就负担不起这样做。
English: It will cost maybe a quarter of a percent or half a percent of gross domestic product (GDP). That is palatable. A few people going to Mars will not cause some meaningful drop in the standard of living. For less than 1 percent of GDP, we can buy life insurance.
中文： 它将花费也许国内生产总值（GDP）的四分之一百分比或半百分比。那是可以接受的。几个人去火星不会导致生活水平的有意义下降。用不到 GDP 的 1%，我们可以购买人寿保险。
English: Starlink internet is what's being used to pay for humanity getting to Mars. I would like to thank everyone who has bought Starlink because you're helping secure the future of civilization. Thank you.
中文： 星链互联网正被用来支付人类到达火星的费用。我想感谢所有购买了星链的人，因为你们正在帮助确保文明的未来。谢谢你们。
English: Right now, you couldn't fly to Mars for a trillion dollars. No amount of money could get any human a ticket to Mars. First, we need to make this possible. But we don't just want to have flags and footprints on Mars for fifty years, like we did with the moon. To pass the great filter of existing only on one planet, we need to truly become a multiplanet species.
中文： 现在，你花一万亿美元也无法飞往火星。没有任何金额的钱可以让任何人获得去火星的票。首先，我们需要使这成为可能。但我们不只是想像我们对月球那样在火星上有旗帜和脚印五十年。要通过只存在于一个行星上的大过滤器，我们需要真正成为多行星物种。
Building the New World
建设新世界
English: Attendance is not mandatory here. It'll be dangerous and people might die.
中文： 这里出席不是强制性的。这会很危险，人们可能会死。
English: Few people will want to go to Mars in the beginning. But for some, the excitement of the frontier exceeds the concern of danger. I think it would be the adventure—the best adventure one could possibly go on—to go build a new civilization on a new planet.
中文： 开始时很少有人想去火星。但对一些人来说，边疆的兴奋超过了危险的担忧。我认为那将是冒险——一个人可能进行的最好的冒险——去在一个新行星上建立一个新的文明。
English: Some people seem to think this will be an escape hatch, some luxury resort for rich people. It is not. It's a high probability of death relative to Earth. Long journey. Not great food. A lot of hard work.
中文： 有些人似乎认为这将是一个逃生舱口，一些富人的豪华度假村。不是这样的。相对于地球，死亡概率很高。长途旅行。食物不太好。很多艰苦的工作。
English: You have to spend six months on a rocket with a hundred other people. It will be cramped. Like old ocean voyages, six months packed on a little ship in the middle of the ocean.
中文： 你必须和另外一百个人在火箭上待六个月。它会很拥挤。像古老的海洋航行，六个月挤在海洋中央的一艘小船上。
English: It's going to take a while to build a real civilization on Mars. The critical threshold is if the ships from Earth stop coming for any reason, does the Mars City die out or not? That's a high bar. You can't be missing anything.
中文： 在火星上建立真正的文明需要一段时间。关键阈值是如果来自地球的船只因任何原因停止到来，火星城市会灭绝吗？那是一个高标准。你不能缺少任何东西。
English: Imagine you're on a long sea voyage and the only thing you're missing is vitamin C. It's only a matter of time before it's curtains. You've got to have all the things necessary to sustain civilization on Mars, including about a million people.
中文： 想象你在一次长途海上航行中，你唯一缺少的是维生素 C。这只是时间问题，然后就结束了。你必须有在火星上维持文明所需的所有东西，包括大约一百万人。
English: I would like to die on Mars…just not on impact.
中文： 我想死在火星上……只是不要在撞击时。
English: Some Starships could come back to Earth. We want to offer an option of coming back, but most people who go to Mars will probably never come back to Earth.
中文： 一些星舰可以返回地球。我们想提供一个返回的选项，但大多数去火星的人可能永远不会返回地球。
English: Most of the ships we send will probably stay there, especially while colonizing Mars, because the ship itself will be so valuable there. Martians will take apart the ship and use it for raw materials.
中文： 我们发送的大多数船只可能会留在那里，特别是在殖民火星期间，因为船本身在那里将非常有价值。火星人将拆解船只并将其用作原材料。
English: Once we get to Mars, there will be a lot to do, and it'll take a while to build it all. We have to build out the industrial base, then the city. First, we build a giant solar panel farm to generate energy. Then a facility to make fuel, oxygen to grow plants for food, and everything necessary to support life.
中文： 一旦我们到达火星，将有很多事情要做，需要一段时间来建造所有东西。我们必须建立工业基础，然后是城市。首先，我们建造一个巨大的太阳能电池板农场来产生能量。然后是一个制造燃料的设施，氧气来种植食物植物，以及支持生命所需的一切。
English: Ultimately we'll need all these things: power generation, ice mining, mining in general, propellent production, long-duration life support, construction, and global communication.
中文： 最终我们将需要所有这些东西：发电、冰开采、一般开采、推进剂生产、长期生命支持、建设和全球通信。
English: A fuel plant will create the fuel for the return trips of many Starships. It's mostly going to be oxygen plants, because rockets run on 78 percent liquid oxygen, 22 percent fuel. Mars has a CO2 atmosphere and water ice, which is CO2 plus H2O, so plenty of raw material to make what rockets need: CH4 (methane) and O2 (oxygen). Rocket fuel is easy to create on Mars, and in many other parts of the solar system.
中文： 燃料工厂将为许多星舰的返程创造燃料。它将主要是氧气工厂，因为火箭运行在 78% 液氧，22% 燃料。火星有二氧化碳大气和水冰，即二氧化碳加水，所以有足够的原材料制造火箭所需的东西：CH4（甲烷）和 O2（氧气）。火箭燃料在火星上很容易制造，在太阳系的许多其他地方也是如此。
English: In the beginning, people would live in glass domes. Over time, we'd terraform Mars and make it like Earth.
中文： 开始时，人们将住在玻璃圆顶中。随着时间的推移，我们将改造火星并使其像地球一样。
English: Mars is cold, but if we warm it up we'll get liquid water. Mars would have an ocean roughly a mile deep on 40 percent of the planet once we warm it up. That's a lot of water. A lot of the ice you see on the poles is actually dry ice. It's frozen CO2.
中文： 火星很冷，但如果我们温暖它，我们将得到液态水。一旦我们温暖它，火星将在 40% 的行星上拥有大约一英里深的海洋。那是很多水。你在两极看到的很多冰实际上是干冰。它是冻结的二氧化碳。
English: Terraforming Mars mostly consists of warming it up. We could warm it up either with solar reflectors in orbit or a lot of thermonuclear explosions.
中文： 改造火星主要包括温暖它。我们可以用轨道上的太阳反射器或很多热核爆炸来温暖它。
English: It sounds crazy, but a series of thermonuclear explosions basically creates an artificial sun. If you're worried that it will generate dangerous radiation, have you stood in the sun? The sun is a giant thermonuclear reactor. Obviously we can stand in front of the sun and not die. We could launch a missile every ten seconds or so. It would be like gigantic thermonuclear fireworks.
中文： 这听起来很疯狂，但一系列热核爆炸基本上创造了一个人造太阳。如果你担心它会产生危险辐射，你站在太阳下过吗？太阳是一个巨大的热核反应堆。显然我们可以站在太阳前面而不死。我们可以大约每十秒发射一枚导弹。那将像巨大的热核烟花。
English: We'd create two little suns, pulsing above the north and south poles.
中文： 我们将创造两个小太阳，在北极和南极上方脉动。
English: That would warm the poles up enough that the frozen carbon dioxide (CO2) would gasify. The Martian atmosphere would get more dense, with water vapor and CO2 in the air. In Mars's case, more CO2 in the air is good, because it will create a positive cycle to make it warmer with more liquid water—like Earth's environment.
中文： 那将温暖两极足够使冻结的二氧化碳（CO2）气化。火星大气将变得更稠密，空气中有水蒸气和二氧化碳。在火星的情况下，空气中更多的二氧化碳是好的，因为它将创造一个积极的循环，使其更温暖，有更多的液态水——像地球的环境。
English: Even if you don't go to Mars, you can watch this all happen on TV. It'll be so cool.
中文： 即使你不去火星，你也可以在电视上观看这一切发生。那将太酷了。
English: What I'm describing may sound crazy, but it is a small fraction of what will ultimately be done, as long as we become a two-planet civilization. Look at the history of shipping technology in Europe. When all you had to do was cross the Mediterranean, the ships were pretty lame—they only had short-range vessels, which couldn't cross the Atlantic.
中文： 我所描述的可能听起来很疯狂，但它只是最终将要做的事情的一小部分，只要我们成为一个两行星文明。看看欧洲航运技术的历史。当你所要做的只是穿越地中海时，船只相当糟糕——它们只有短程船只，无法穿越大西洋。
English: Without the forcing function of long-range commerce, shipping technology didn't improve much. You could do mostly the same things with ships around the time of Julius Caesar and the time of Columbus. Fifteen hundred years later, ships could still only cross the Mediterranean. But as soon as there was a reason to cross the Atlantic, shipping technology improved dramatically. The American colonies were needed for that to happen.
中文： 没有长途商业的强制功能，航运技术没有太大改进。你可以在朱利叶斯·凯撒时代和哥伦布时代用船做大致相同的事情。一千五百年后，船只仍然只能穿越地中海。但一旦有理由穿越大西洋，航运技术就大幅改善。为此需要美洲殖民地。
English: Reusable rockets are the modern-day equivalent of the first ships that could cross oceans.
中文： 可重复使用的火箭是现代相当于第一艘可以穿越海洋的船只。
English: Until you have a breakthrough technology enabling travel, there's no way for entrepreneurial energy to do anything.
中文： 直到你有一个突破性技术能够实现旅行，创业能量无法做任何事情。
English: Once we build reusable rockets, suddenly the opportunity is immense. We're going to do our best to get you to Mars, and make sure there's an environment there where entrepreneurs can continue building and flourish.
中文： 一旦我们建造可重复使用的火箭，机会突然变得巨大。我们将尽最大努力让你去火星，并确保那里有一个环境，创业者可以继续建设和繁荣。
English: The same thing happened with the first cross-continental railroad in the United States, the Union Pacific Railroad. When they were building the Union Pacific Railroad, nobody could predict Silicon Valley, Hollywood, or California becoming the most populous state in the country. That would have sounded crazy. But then they discovered gold.
中文： 同样的事情发生在美国第一条跨大陆铁路，联合太平洋铁路。当他们建造联合太平洋铁路时，没有人能预测硅谷、好莱坞或加利福尼亚成为该国人口最多的州。那听起来会很疯狂。但然后他们发现了黄金。
English: It's incumbent on SpaceX and other organizations to figure out how to get to Mars. Otherwise, nothing else matters. Once we get there, there's a lot that can be done.
中文： SpaceX 和其他组织有责任找出如何到达火星。否则，其他事情都不重要。一旦我们到达那里，有很多事情可以做。
English: There will be a lot of super exciting things that are hard to predict. After the basic infrastructure is built on Mars, there will be an explosion of opportunity for entrepreneurs, because our new world will need everything from iron foundries to pizza joints. This includes everything you can imagine, like starting the first Italian restaurant on Mars. That would be cool, and somebody's gotta do it.
中文： 将有很多超级令人兴奋的事情难以预测。在火星上建立基本基础设施后，创业者将有机会爆发，因为我们的新世界将需要从铸铁厂到披萨店的一切。这包括你能想象的一切，比如在火星上开第一家意大利餐厅。那会很酷，有人必须去做。
Colonizing the Galaxy
殖民银河系
English: Earth is the cradle of humanity. We cannot stay in the cradle forever. It is time to go forth, be out there among the stars. Expand the scope and scale of human consciousness.
中文： 地球是人类的摇篮。我们不能永远待在摇篮里。是时候出发了，在群星之中。扩展人类意识的范围和规模。
English: The big picture isn't just to back up the hard drive of humanity, but to grow humanity into a true multiplanetary species. Let's establish a regular cargo route to Mars. With the economic driver of interplanetary commerce, there will be resources and incentives to massively improve space transport technology, and then things will go to a whole new level.
中文： 大局不仅仅是备份人类的硬盘，而是将人类成长为一个真正的多行星物种。让我们建立一条定期的火星货运路线。有了行星间商业的经济驱动，将有资源和激励来大幅改善太空运输技术，然后事情将进入一个全新的水平。
English: Starship is not suitable for going to another star system, but it is a general solution for transport anywhere inside the solar system. Once we have a propellant depot on Mars, we can travel to the asteroid belt, the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, and ultimately anywhere in the solar system. This is huge.
中文： 星舰不适合前往另一个恒星系统，但它是太阳系内任何地方运输的通用解决方案。一旦我们在火星上有一个推进剂仓库，我们可以前往小行星带、木星和土星的卫星，最终太阳系内的任何地方。这是巨大的。
English: When space travel becomes as common as air travel, the future of civilization will be assured.
中文： 当太空旅行变得像航空旅行一样普遍时，文明的未来将得到保证。
English: One way to look at the progress of civilization is the percentage completion of each Kardashev level. Kardashev level one is harnessing all the energy of a planet. In my opinion, we've only harnessed maybe 1 or 2 percent of Earth's energy. So we've got a long way to go to complete Kardashev level one.
中文： 看待文明进步的一种方式是每个卡尔达肖夫级别的完成百分比。卡尔达肖夫一级是利用一个行星的所有能量。在我看来，我们只利用了地球能源的 1% 或 2%。所以我们还有很长的路要走才能完成卡尔达肖夫一级。
English: Kardashev level two is complete when we've harnessed all the energy of the sun. That would be—I don't know—a billion times more energy than Earth? Maybe closer to a trillion. Then, Kardashev level three would be all the energy of a galaxy. We're pretty far from that. So we're at the very, very early stage of the intelligence big bang.
中文： 卡尔达肖夫二级在我们利用了太阳的所有能量时完成。那将是——我不知道——比地球多十亿倍的能量？也许更接近一万亿。然后，卡尔达肖夫三级将是一个星系的所有能量。我们离那还很远。所以我们处于智能大爆炸的非常非常早期阶段。
English: If we can establish a Mars colony, we can almost certainly colonize the whole solar system. We'll go to the moons of Jupiter, at least some of the outer ones, probably Titan on Saturn, and the asteroids. Once we have an Earth-to-Mars economy as a forcing function, we'll cover the whole solar system.
中文： 如果我们能建立火星殖民地，我们几乎肯定可以殖民整个太阳系。我们将前往木星的卫星，至少一些外层的，可能是土星的泰坦，以及小行星。一旦我们有一个地球到火星的经济作为强制功能，我们将覆盖整个太阳系。
English: We have to make Mars work. If we're going to have any chance of sending stuff to other star systems, we need to be laser-focused on Mars. That's our next step.
中文： 我们必须让火星工作。如果我们要有任何机会将东西发送到其他恒星系统，我们需要激光聚焦于火星。那是我们的下一步。
English: On a galactic time scale, even with slower-than-light travel, we could colonize the whole galaxy. Even some of the neighboring galaxies. If we get a million years, even with no new physics, could we colonize the galaxy? Absolutely. The entire galaxy.
中文： 在银河时间尺度上，即使以低于光速的旅行，我们也可以殖民整个银河系。甚至一些邻近的星系。如果我们有一百万年，即使没有新的物理学，我们能殖民银河系吗？绝对可以。整个银河系。
English: You are the magicians of the twenty-first century; don't let anything hold you back. Imagination is the limit. Go out there and create some magic.
中文： 你们是二十一世纪的魔术师；不要让任何事情阻碍你。想象力是极限。走出去，创造一些魔法。
BONUS: THE 69 CORE MUSK METHODS
附录：69 个核心马斯克方法
English: These were selected as some of the fundamental ideas that make Elon and his companies successful. They have been edited or paraphrased into short, memorable maxims.
中文： 这些被选为使埃隆和他的公司成功的一些基本思想。它们已被编辑或改写成简短、令人难忘的金科玉律。
English: You are capable of more than you think. 中文： 你比你想象的更有能力。
English: It's possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary. 中文： 普通人可以选择变得非凡。
English: You can teach yourself anything. Read widely; talk to experts. 中文： 你可以自学任何东西。广泛阅读；与专家交谈。
English: Assume you're wrong. Aspire to be less wrong. 中文： 假设你是错的。致力于少犯错。
English: Internalize responsibility. 中文： 内化责任。
English: If we don't make stuff, there is no stuff. 中文： 如果我们不制造东西，就没有东西。
English: Creating products and services creates wealth. 中文： 创造产品和服务创造财富。
English: A useful life is worth having lived. 中文： 有用的一生值得活过。
English: Don't aspire to glory; aspire to work. 中文： 不要渴望荣耀；渴望工作。
English: Take actions that increase the odds of the future being good. 中文： 采取增加未来变好几率的行动。
English: Every day, we either increase the rate of innovation or it slows down. 中文： 每天，我们要么增加创新率，要么它减慢。
English: Work on what is just becoming possible. 中文： 致力于刚刚变得可能的事情。
English: Don't wait for the world to want it. If it should obviously exist, go build it. 中文： 不要等世界想要它。如果它显然应该存在，就去建造它。
English: Build what no one else is building. 中文： 建造别人没有建造的东西。
English: As you move forward, allies will assemble around you. 中文： 当你前进时，盟友将聚集在你周围。
English: Prototypes are proof. 中文： 原型是证明。
English: Start somewhere, question assumptions, and adapt to reality. 中文： 从某个地方开始，质疑假设，并适应现实。
English: Reason from fundamentals, not from what others are doing. 中文： 从基本原理推理，而不是从别人正在做的事情推理。
English: "The magic-wand number." See the theoretically perfect and work toward it. 中文： "魔杖数字"。看到理论上完美的并朝它努力。
English: "Know the idiot index." Understand the cost of components. 中文： "了解白痴指数"。了解组件的成本。
English: The Algorithm: Question Requirements → Try to Delete the Part or Process → Simplify → Accelerate → Automate. 中文： 算法：质疑要求 → 尝试删除部件或过程 → 简化 → 加速 → 自动化。
English: For critical items, have meetings every twenty-four hours to run The Algorithm and check progress from yesterday. 中文： 对于关键项目，每二十四小时开会运行算法并检查昨天的进度。
English: Stay as close to the actual work as possible. Do not separate yourself from the pain of your decisions. 中文： 尽可能靠近实际工作。不要将自己与决策的痛苦分离。
English: All requirements should be treated as recommendations. 中文： 所有要求都应被视为建议。
English: The only fixed laws are the laws of physics. 中文： 唯一固定的定律是物理定律。
English: The best part is no part; the best process is no process. 中文： 最好的部件是没有部件；最好的过程是没有过程。
English: Simplicity creates both reliability and low cost. 中文： 简单创造可靠性和低成本。
English: Find the design necessity of every part and every process. 中文： 找出每个部件和每个过程的设计必要性。
English: Overdelete and add back the absolutely necessary. 中文： 过度删除并加回绝对必要的。
English: Push for radical breakthroughs. 中文： 推动激进突破。
English: Be proactive. You will never win unless you take charge of setting the strategy. 中文： 积极主动。除非你负责制定战略，否则你永远不会赢。
English: A maniacal sense of urgency is our operating principle. 中文： 疯狂的紧迫感是我们的运营原则。
English: A factory moving at twice the speed of another factory is basically equivalent to two factories. 中文： 以两倍于另一个工厂的速度移动的工厂基本上相当于两个工厂。
English: Attack the bottleneck. If you have 9,999 things that are working and one that isn't, that one sets the overall production rate. 中文： 攻击瓶颈。如果你有 9,999 件事在工作，有一件不在工作，那一件设定整体生产率。
English: You'll move as fast as your least-lucky or least-competent supplier. 中文： 你将移动得和最不走运或最无能的供应商一样快。
English: Do things in parallel. 中文： 并行做事。
English: Give teams one key metric to focus on. Video games without a score are boring. 中文： 给团队一个关键指标来关注。没有分数的电子游戏很无聊。
English: Separating design, engineering, and manufacturing is a recipe for dysfunction. 中文： 分离设计、工程和制造是功能障碍的配方。
English: Speed of innovation is what matters. 中文： 创新速度才是重要的。
English: Beat competitors on speed, quality, and cost, not anticompetitive behavior. 中文： 在速度、质量和成本上击败竞争对手，而不是反竞争行为。
English: Test the absurd. When something seems impossible, ask: "What would it take?" 中文： 测试荒谬的。当某事看起来不可能时，问："需要什么？"
English: Money is not the constraint. Exceptional engineers are. 中文： 钱不是限制。卓越的工程师才是。
English: Get everyone thinking like the chief engineer. 中文： 让每个人都像首席工程师一样思考。
English: Get a clear, direct feedback loop with reality. 中文： 获得与现实的清晰、直接反馈循环。
English: Always be smashing your ego. Ensure ability > ego. 中文： 永远粉碎你的自我。确保能力 > 自我。
English: Ask, "Is this effort resulting in a better product or service?" If not, stop. 中文： 问，"这个努力是否导致更好的产品或服务？"如果不是，停止。
English: Good taste is learnable. Train yourself to notice what makes something beautiful. 中文： 好品味是可学习的。训练自己注意什么使东西美丽。
English: Physics doesn't care about hurt feelings. Make the rocket fly. 中文： 物理学不在乎受伤的感情。让火箭飞行。
English: Empathy is not an asset. 中文： 同情不是资产。
English: Use simple, clear, humble terms. 中文： 使用简单、清晰、谦逊的术语。
English: Go directly to the source of information. 中文： 直接去信息来源。
🎉《The Book of Elon》翻译项目已完成！
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