建造 SpaceX
English: Building mass-market electric cars was inevitable. It would have happened without me. But becoming a space-faring civilization is not inevitable.
中文： 建造大众市场电动汽车是不可避免的。没有我也会发生。但成为一个太空航行文明不是不可避免的。
THE ONLY ONE CRAZY ENOUGH FOR SPACE
唯一疯狂到足以进入太空的人
English: I've always been optimistic. If I wasn't optimistic, I wouldn't be attempting all these crazy things. I must be pathologically optimistic, I suppose.
中文： 我一直很乐观。如果我不乐观，我就不会尝试所有这些疯狂的事情。我想我一定是病态地乐观。
English: The origin of SpaceX was trying to figure out why we had not sent anyone to Mars. The obvious next step after Apollo was to send people to Mars.
中文： SpaceX 的起源是试图找出为什么我们没有送任何人去火星。阿波罗之后明显的下一步是送人去火星。
English: Every year I'd look at the NASA website, and there didn't seem to be a date for it. We were able to go to the moon in 1969. Our last mission to the moon was in 1972. Now here we are half a century later and we still have not gone back to the moon. It would be extremely tragic if Apollo was the high-water mark for humanity, if the moon was as far as we got.
中文： 每年我都会看 NASA 的网站，似乎没有日期。我们能够在 1969 年去月球。我们最后一次登月任务是在 1972 年。现在半个世纪过去了，我们仍然没有回到月球。如果阿波罗是人类的高水位标记，如果月球是我们到达的最远的地方，那将极其悲惨。
English: The space shuttle could only take people to low earth orbit. Then the space shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. The trend was dwindling down to nothing. Does this mean we've peaked as a civilization?
中文： 航天飞机只能将人送入低地球轨道。然后航天飞机退役了，美国无法送任何人进入轨道。趋势逐渐减少到零。这是否意味着我们作为文明已经达到了顶峰？
English: If you had asked people in 1969 what the world would look like in fifty years, they would have expected a base on the moon and some people visiting Mars. Maybe even a base on Mars. They would expect orbiting space hotels and other awesome stuff.
中文： 如果你在 1969 年问人们五十年后世界会是什么样子，他们会预期月球上有一个基地，一些人访问火星。甚至可能火星上有一个基地。他们会预期轨道太空酒店和其他惊人的东西。
English: If you told them, "Well, we have a device smaller than a deck of cards with access to all the world's information, and you can talk to anyone instantly on planet Earth. But the United States will not be able to send anyone to orbit," they would have called bullshit. "You have all of that, and nothing is happening in space?!"
中文： 如果你告诉他们，"好吧，我们有一个比一副扑克牌还小的设备，可以访问世界上所有的信息，你可以立即与地球上的任何人交谈。但美国将无法送任何人进入轨道，"他们会说是胡扯。"你有所有这些，太空中什么都没有发生？！"
English: After we sold PayPal in 2001, I was trying to figure out why.
中文： 2001 年我们出售 PayPal 后，我试图找出原因。
English: The original idea for SpaceX wasn't to create a company. It was to figure out why we hadn't sent people to Mars. I thought maybe we'd lost the will to explore. I thought we had to create the will to explore. But that was wrong.
中文： SpaceX 最初的想法不是创建一家公司。而是找出为什么我们没有送人去火星。我想也许我们失去了探索的意志。我想我们必须创造探索的意志。但那是错的。
English: We have not lost the will to explore; people just did not think there was a way forward. If people don't think there's a way, then they won't continuously bash their head against the wall for progress.
中文： 我们没有失去探索的意志；人们只是认为没有前进的道路。如果人们认为没有路，那么他们就不会为了进步而不断地用头撞墙。
English: There must be things to inspire us—that make you proud to be a member of humanity.
中文： 必须有事情激励我们——让你为成为人类的一员而感到自豪。
English: The Apollo moon landing was an example of that. Only a handful of people went to the moon—and yet actually we all went to the moon. We went with them vicariously. We shared in that adventure. No one would say that was a bad idea—that Apollo wasn't great. We need more of those.
中文： 阿波罗登月就是一个例子。只有少数人去了月球——但实际上我们都去了月球。我们间接地和他们一起去了。我们分享了那次冒险。没有人会说那是一个坏主意——阿波罗不伟大。我们需要更多那样的事情。
English: The United States is a distillation of the human spirit of exploration. It's fundamental to the psyche. Once people realized, "There is a way to do this," we got a lot of support.
中文： 美国是人类探索精神的蒸馏。它对心灵是根本的。一旦人们意识到，"有办法做到这一点，"我们得到了很多支持。
I EXPECTED TO LOSE EVERYTHING
我预计会失去一切
English: When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.
中文： 当某事足够重要时，即使几率对你不利，你也要去做。
English: When I started them, I guessed both SpaceX and Tesla each had a probability of less than 10 percent to succeed.
中文： 当我创办它们时，我猜测 SpaceX 和特斯拉各自成功的概率都小于 10%。
English: I don't look at ideas and ask, "What is the rank-ordered list of best business opportunities from a financial standpoint?" I look for problems that are important to fix for people now and for the future to be good.
中文： 我不会看着想法并问，"从财务角度来看，最佳商业机会的排序列表是什么？"我寻找对现在和未来都很重要的需要解决的问题。
English: If one were to do a risk-adjusted rate of return estimate on opportunities, building rockets and building cars would be pretty close to the bottom of the list. They would be the dumbest things you could possibly do.
中文： 如果一个人对机会进行风险调整后回报率估计，建造火箭和建造汽车将接近列表底部。那将是你可能做的最愚蠢的事情。
English: Company stock value is not a metric by which I judge my own achievements.
中文： 公司股票价值不是我判断自己成就的指标。
English: I had a lot of friends try to talk me out of starting a rocket company, because they thought it was crazy. Everyone thought it was a crazy idea. Some people had actually tried to start rocket companies before and failed. They tried to talk me out of it too.
中文： 我有很多朋友试图说服我不要创办火箭公司，因为他们认为这很疯狂。每个人都认为这是一个疯狂的想法。有些人以前实际上试图创办火箭公司并失败了。他们也试图说服我不要这样做。
English: One good friend compiled a bunch of footage of rocket failures and forced me to watch it. I said, "I've seen them all already."
中文： 一个好朋友编译了一堆火箭失败的视频，强迫我看。我说，"我已经都看过了。"
English: I think these people misunderstood my premise. When I started SpaceX, it was not with the expectation of success. I thought the most likely outcome was failure.
中文： 我想这些人误解了我的前提。当我创办 SpaceX 时，并没有期望成功。我认为最可能的结果是失败。
English: Their premise for talking me out of it was, "You're going to lose the money you invest." I replied, "Well, that was my expectation anyway, so I don't really mind!"
中文： 他们说服我的前提是，"你会失去你投资的钱。"我回答说，"好吧，反正那是我的预期，所以我真的不介意！"
English: I mean, I mind losing money, but it's not like I was trying to figure out the rank-ordered best way to invest my money and on that basis chose space. I didn't think, "I could do real estate, or invest in shoemaking, and—whoa! Space has the highest ROI!" That was not my premise.
中文： 我的意思是，我在意亏钱，但这不是说我试图找出投资我的钱的排序最佳方式，并在此基础上选择太空。我没有想，"我可以做房地产，或投资制鞋业，然后——哇！太空有最高的投资回报率！"那不是我的前提。
English: There have been many times where I expected to lose everything. Who starts a car company and a rocket company expecting them to succeed? Certainly not me. I thought they both had a low chance of success, less than 10 percent. Maybe 1 percent, I don't know. Frankly, I wasn't wrong.
中文： 有很多次我预计会失去一切。谁会创办一家汽车公司和一家火箭公司并期望它们成功？肯定不是我。我认为它们成功的几率都很低，低于 10%。也许 1%，我不知道。坦率地说，我没说错。
English: We must be optimistic. There's no point in being pessimistic. It just doesn't help. My theory is you'd rather be optimistic and wrong about the future than pessimistic and right. If you're pessimistic, you're going to be miserable. Might as well enjoy the journey.
中文： 我们必须乐观。悲观没有意义。这只是没有帮助。我的理论是你宁愿对未来乐观而错，也不要悲观而对。如果你悲观，你会很痛苦。不如享受旅程。
English: Q: How did you go about creating belief and support for the Mars mission?
中文： 问：你如何为火星任务创造信念和支持？
English: If you're trying to convince the public to do something, you have to think about what will excite people.
中文： 如果你试图说服公众做某事，你必须考虑什么会激发人们。
English: What message are we going to try to convey? What will people respond to? What would I respond to if I was an objective member of the public?
中文： 我们要试图传达什么信息？人们会对什么做出反应？如果我是一个客观的公众成员，我会对什么做出反应？
English: I thought we could send a small greenhouse to the surface of Mars, with seeds and a nutrient gel to hydrate the seeds upon landing.
中文： 我想我们可以送一个小温室到火星表面，带有种子和营养凝胶，在着陆时给种子浇水。
English: The greenhouse mission would be the first life on another planet, as far as we knew. The farthest life had ever traveled. We would have a great picture of green plants on a red background. That's the money shot. People tend to respond to precedents and superlatives.
中文： 据我们所知，温室任务将是另一个星球上的第一个生命。生命曾经到达的最远的地方。我们将有一张绿色植物在红色背景上的精彩照片。那是关键镜头。人们倾向于对先例和最高级做出反应。
English: I thought getting a greenhouse on Mars would get people excited about sending humans there. My original goal was to get the public excited, to get NASA's budget increased to get a mission to Mars funded.
中文： 我认为在火星上建立一个温室会让人们对送人去那里感到兴奋。我最初的目标是让公众兴奋起来，让 NASA 的预算增加，为火星任务提供资金。
English: I was willing to spend half the money I got from PayPal, so $90 million, on this mission with no expectation of return. This was just something important to accomplish. If I spent $90 million to get NASA a bigger budget, which resulted in us going to Mars, that would be a good outcome.
中文： 我愿意花我从 PayPal 获得的一半资金，即 9000 万美元，用于这个任务，不期望回报。这只是一项重要的成就。如果我花了 9000 万美元让 NASA 获得更大的预算，从而导致我们去火星，那将是一个好的结果。
English: Also, I was trying to figure out if I could afford to build a spacecraft. I wanted to budget for two missions because if we only did one and it failed, it might actually deter people from trying in the future.
中文： 此外，我试图找出我是否能负担得起建造一艘航天器。我想为两次任务做预算，因为如果我们只做一次而失败了，它实际上可能会阻止人们将来尝试。
English: I was able to get the cost of the spacecraft, communications, and the little greenhouse down. But the one thing I couldn't compress was the cost to launch. There were only a few options, and the US options were way too expensive. I ended up going to Russia three times to try to buy the biggest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the Russian nuclear fleet. That didn't work out.
中文： 我能够降低航天器、通信和小温室的成本。但我无法压缩的一件事是发射成本。只有几个选项，美国的选项太贵了。我最终去了俄罗斯三次，试图购买俄罗斯核舰队中最大的洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）。那没有成功。
English: In doing this, I realized what we really need to do is improve the technology of space transportation. I wanted to hold out hope that humans could be a space-faring civilization, out there among the stars. There was no chance of that unless a new company was started to create revolutionary rockets.
中文： 在这样做时，我意识到我们真正需要做的是改进太空运输技术。我想保持希望，人类可以成为一个太空航行文明，在群星之中。除非创办一家新公司来创造革命性火箭，否则没有机会。
English: If a startup didn't do something to advance rocket technology, it wouldn't happen. Either it's coming from a startup or it's not happening at all. A small chance of success is better than no chance of success. So I started SpaceX in mid-2002, expecting to fail.
中文： 如果初创公司不做一些事情来推进火箭技术，它就不会发生。要么来自初创公司，要么根本不会发生。小的成功机会比没有成功机会好。所以我在 2002 年年中创办了 SpaceX，预计会失败。
English: Q: Why did you decide to fund SpaceX yourself?
中文： 问：你为什么决定自己资助 SpaceX？
English: After PayPal was sold, I started debating between working on solar, electric cars, or space. I figured space would be the least likely to succeed, so least likely to attract other entrepreneurs. Nobody else was crazy enough to do space. I thought I'd better work on space first.
中文： PayPal 出售后，我开始在太阳能、电动汽车或太空之间辩论。我认为太空最不可能成功，所以最不可能吸引其他创业者。没有其他人疯狂到足以做太空。我想我最好先从事太空工作。
English: My first idea, the greenhouse mission, would have a 100 percent chance of losing all the money associated with it. If anything, starting a rocket company had less than a 100 percent chance of losing all the money associated with it. From my perspective, it was actually less risky than the first idea, which was just paying to send the greenhouse to Mars.
中文： 我的第一个想法，温室任务，将有 100% 的几率失去与之相关的所有资金。如果说有什么的话，创办一家火箭公司有不到 100% 的几率失去与之相关的所有资金。从我的角度来看，它实际上比第一个想法风险更小，第一个想法只是支付将温室送到火星的费用。
English: The likeliest outcome is I will lose all my money. But what's the alternative? No progress in space exploration? We've got to give this a shot, or we're stuck on Earth forever.
中文： 最可能的结果是我会失去所有的钱。但替代方案是什么？太空探索没有进展？我们必须试一试，否则我们将永远被困在地球上。
English: I would not recommend a space company to first-time entrepreneurs. Space is advanced entrepreneuring. You're better off starting something that requires little capital first. Space is definitely a high-capital effort.
中文： 我不建议首次创业者创办太空公司。太空是高级创业。你最好先开始一些需要很少资本的事情。太空绝对是一项高资本努力。
English: I'm a big believer in this: Don't ask investors to invest their money if you're not prepared to invest your money. It doesn't seem right to me to ask other people to invest if you don't also invest. I'd rather lose my money than any of my friends' money or investors' money.
中文： 我非常相信这一点：如果你不准备投资自己的钱，就不要要求投资者投资他们的钱。如果你自己不投资，却要求其他人投资，这对我来说似乎不对。我宁愿失去我的钱，也不愿失去我朋友的钱或投资者的钱。
English: I didn't even seek investor funding for the first three rounds of SpaceX because the first thing investors want to ask you is, "Tell us about prior successes in this field. What can we compare this to?" When you have about zero in the success category and a cemetery full of failures, they're not too keen. Rockets are pretty far out of the comfort zone of most venture capitalists.
中文： 我甚至在 SpaceX 的前三轮都没有寻求投资者资金，因为投资者想问你的第一件事是，"告诉我们这个领域以前的成功。我们可以把这个和什么比较？"当你在成功类别中大约为零，失败类别中有一个墓地时，他们不太热衷。火箭相当远离大多数风险投资家的舒适区。
English: We were able to get venture funding after we demonstrated we were almost able to get to orbit. Credit goes to Founders Fund, my compatriots from PayPal: Peter Thiel, Luke Nosek, Ken Howery, and the guys. They invested before we got to orbit, so credit to them.
中文： 在我们证明我们几乎能够进入轨道后，我们获得了风险投资。功劳归于创始人基金，我在 PayPal 的同胞：彼得·蒂尔、卢克·诺塞克、肯·豪厄里和伙计们。他们在我们进入轨道之前投资，所以功劳归于他们。
English: Rockets are hard. I had never made physical stuff before SpaceX, let alone rockets. I had to show I could actually make stuff.
中文： 火箭很难。在 SpaceX 之前，我从未制造过实物，更不用说火箭了。我必须证明我实际上可以制造东西。
English: Once we started building a space launch company, I predicated the strategic plan on a known market, something I know for a fact exists: the need to put small- to medium-sized satellites into orbit. We served that need initially. With that as a base of revenue, we could eventually move into the human transportation market.
中文： 一旦我们开始建造一家太空发射公司，我就将战略计划基于一个已知的市场，我知道确实存在的东西：将中小型卫星送入轨道的需求。我们最初满足了这一需求。以此为收入基础，我们最终可以进入人类运输市场。
English: First, we built an orbital launch vehicle. A high mass-efficiency launch vehicle targeted to solving the satellite delivery market. Our approach was to make this a solid, sound business from the beginning.
中文： 首先，我们建造了一辆轨道发射车。一辆高质量效率的发射车，旨在解决卫星交付市场。我们的方法是从一开始就使其成为稳固、健全的业务。
English: The long-term aims of the company were always human transportation. But I think the smart strategy was to first go for cargo delivery, putting satellites into orbit. Our eventual upgrade path was to build Starship, the successor to Saturn V rocket, a superheavy-lift vehicle that could be used for setting up a moon base or doing a Mars mission. That is our holy grail objective.
中文： 公司的长期目标一直是人类运输。但我认为明智的策略是首先进行货物交付，将卫星送入轨道。我们最终的升级路径是建造星舰，土星 V 火箭的继任者，一种超重型运载工具，可用于建立月球基地或执行火星任务。那是我们的圣杯目标。
ROCKETS FROM FIRST PRINCIPLES
从第一性原理出发的火箭
English: I was trying to figure out if there was something fundamentally superexpensive about rockets.
中文： 我试图找出火箭是否有本质上超级昂贵的东西。
English: Q: How did you determine whether your vision for SpaceX had the potential to succeed?
中文： 问：你如何确定你对 SpaceX 的愿景是否有成功潜力？
English: How could the Russians build low-cost rockets? It's not like we drive Russian cars, fly Russian planes, or have Russian kitchen appliances. The US is a pretty competitive place, and we should be able to build a cost-efficient launch vehicle.
中文： 俄罗斯人如何建造低成本火箭？这不是说我们开俄罗斯汽车，坐俄罗斯飞机，或有俄罗斯厨房电器。美国是一个竞争激烈的地方，我们应该能够建造一个成本效益高的发射车。
English: I started reading quite a bit about rockets, trying to understand why they're so friggin' expensive. It used to be $60 million to build the Delta II. Now, a Delta II costs $100 million to make. Crazy number. Delta II is a relatively small rocket! The bigger rockets are anywhere from $200 to $400 million.
中文： 我开始读了很多关于火箭的书，试图理解为什么它们他妈的这么贵。过去建造 Delta II 需要 6000 万美元。现在，Delta II 的制造成本为 1 亿美元。疯狂的数字。Delta II 是一个相对较小的火箭！较大的火箭从 2 亿到 4 亿美元不等。
English: I was pretty mad, and when I get mad I try to reframe the problem.
中文： 我很生气，当我生气时，我试图重新构建问题。
English: I looked at the suppliers NASA had been relying on. With suppliers like Boeing and Lockheed, you're screwed.
中文： 我看了 NASA 一直依赖的供应商。使用像波音和洛克希德这样的供应商，你完蛋了。
English: One problem with those big aerospace firms is incredible aversion to risk. Even if better technology is available, they still use legacy components, often ones that were developed in the 1960s. Everyone is trying to optimize their ass-covering.
中文： 那些大型航空航天公司的一个问题是对风险的难以置信的厌恶。即使有更好的技术可用，他们仍然使用传统组件，通常是那些在 1960 年代开发的。每个人都在试图优化他们的屁股覆盖。
English: Second, there's a tendency in big aerospace companies to outsource everything. That's been trendy in many industries, but aerospace has done it to a ridiculous degree. They outsource to subcontractors, and then the subcontractors outsource to sub-subcontractors, and so on. You have to go four or five layers down to find somebody actually doing real work—cutting metal, shaping atoms. Every level above that tacks on cost—it's overhead to the fifth power. I began to understand why things were so expensive.
中文： 其次，大型航空航天公司有一种外包一切的趋势。这在许多行业都很流行，但航空航天已经做到了荒谬的程度。他们外包给分包商，然后分包商外包给次级分包商，依此类推。你必须向下走四到五层才能找到真正做实际工作的人——切割金属、塑造原子。上面的每一层都增加了成本——这是五次方的开销。我开始理解为什么东西这么贵。
English: Boeing and Lockheed just want their cost-plus gravy trains. When you've had success for too long, you lose the desire to take risks. We can't get to Mars with that system. They have an incentive to never finish the job.
中文： 波音和洛克希德只想要他们的成本加成 gravy 火车。当你成功太久，你就失去了冒险的欲望。我们无法用那个系统到达火星。他们有动力永远不完成工作。
English: There wasn't really a good reason for rockets to be so expensive. Rockets could be a lot cheaper even if they were still expendable. But, if one could make them reusable, like airplanes, then the cost of rocketry and space travel would both drop dramatically.
中文： 火箭如此昂贵并没有真正的好理由。即使火箭仍然是一次性的，它们也可以便宜得多。但是，如果能让它们像飞机一样可重复使用，那么火箭和太空旅行的成本都会大幅下降。
English: I put together a feasibility study with a team of engineers who were involved in all major launch vehicle developments over the last thirty years. We met over a number of Saturdays in early 2001 to find the smartest way to approach launch cost and reliability, and we came up with a default design.
中文： 我与一个参与了过去三十年所有主要运载火箭开发的工程师团队一起进行了一项可行性研究。我们在 2001 年初的几个星期六会面，找出处理发射成本和可靠性的最聪明方法，我们想出了一个默认设计。
English: It was fortunate timing. The feasibility study finished around the time we agreed to sell PayPal to eBay. So coincidently with that sale, I moved down to Los Angeles, the biggest concentration of aerospace talent in the world.
中文： 时机很幸运。可行性研究在我们同意将 PayPal 出售给 eBay 时完成。所以与那次出售巧合的是，我搬到了洛杉矶，那是世界上最大的航空航天人才集中地。
English: Q: Did people give you a hard time for this? It seems like a lot of people were saying "Elon is a software guy. Why is he working on hardware?"
中文： 问：人们为此为难你了吗？似乎很多人都在说"埃隆是个软件人。他为什么在做硬件？"
English: One hundred percent. A lot of the press from that time is still online. They kept calling me an "internet guy" attempting to build a rocket company. We got ridiculed quite a bit.
中文： 百分之百。当时的很多媒体报道仍然在线。他们一直称我为试图建立火箭公司的"互联网人"。我们被嘲笑了很多。
English: It does sound absurd. "Internet guy starts rocket company" doesn't sound like a recipe for success, frankly, so I don't hold it against them. It does sound improbable, and I agreed. It was improbable.
中文： 这听起来确实荒谬。"互联网人创办火箭公司"听起来不像成功的秘诀，坦率地说，所以我不怪他们。这听起来确实不太可能，我同意。那确实不太可能。
English: I didn't study rocket science but have picked it up along the way.
中文： 我没有学习火箭科学，但一路上学会了。
English: I didn't really know how to start a rocket company. The first three launches failed. I did not hit the bull's-eye.
中文： 我真的不知道如何创办火箭公司。前三次发射都失败了。我没有击中靶心。
KEEPING SPACEX ALIVE
维持 SpaceX 生存
English: SpaceX is in this for the long haul and, come hell or high water, we are going to make this work.
中文： SpaceX 是为了长期而努力，无论遇到什么困难，我们都要让它成功。
English: I thought if we couldn't get to orbit within three failures, we deserved to die. That was my going-in proposition.
中文： 我想如果我们在三次失败内无法进入轨道，我们就该死。那是我的初始命题。
English: In 2006, our first rocket landed a couple hundred yards away from the launch site in tiny fragments. The second attempt failed too. But, we got further each time. In 2008, we had the third failure in a row of the Falcon rocket. I had only budgeted for three attempts.
中文： 2006 年，我们的第一枚火箭以微小碎片的形式降落在离发射场几百码的地方。第二次尝试也失败了。但是，我们每次都走得更远。2008 年，我们连续第三次猎鹰火箭失败。我只预算了三次尝试。
English: That's when I split all the money I had left between Tesla and SpaceX. It was enough to afford a fourth launch at SpaceX, if we moved super fast.
中文： 就在那时，我把剩下的所有钱分给了特斯拉和 SpaceX。这足以支付 SpaceX 的第四次发射，如果我们超级快地行动。
English: I collected everyone in the conference room and said, "We have one last rocket. Get your shit together, go back to the island, and launch it. You have six weeks."
中文： 我把所有人召集到会议室说，"我们有最后一枚火箭。振作起来，回到岛上，发射它。你有六周时间。"
English: Here was my email to the team: "There should be absolutely zero question that SpaceX will prevail in reaching orbit and demonstrating reliable space transport. For my part, I will never give up and I mean never. Thank you for your hard work. Now, on to flight four."
中文： 这是我给团队的电子邮件：" SpaceX 将在进入轨道和展示可靠太空运输方面取得胜利，这绝对没有任何疑问。就我而言，我永远不会放弃，我是说永远。感谢你的辛勤工作。现在，进入第四次飞行。"
English: If we didn't succeed, we would be pointed to as a reason people shouldn't even try these things. We must do whatever is necessary to keep going.
中文： 如果我们不成功，我们将被指出作为人们甚至不应该尝试这些事情的理由。我们必须做任何必要的事情来继续前进。
English: I don't ever give up. I'd have to be dead or completely incapacitated.
中文： 我从不放弃。我必须是死了或完全丧失能力。
English: It was an interesting exercise in karma. After I got ousted by the PayPal coup leaders, I could have said "You guys suck," but I didn't. If I'd done that, Founders Fund wouldn't have come through with an investment in SpaceX in 2008 and the company would be dead. Karma may be real.
中文： 这是一个有趣的因果报应练习。在我被 PayPal 政变领导者赶下台后，我本可以说"你们这些家伙很烂，"但我没有。如果我那样做了，创始人基金就不会在 2008 年投资 SpaceX，公司就会死掉。因果报应可能是真的。
English: If the fourth launch hadn't worked, that would have been curtains. I had no money left. It was a pretty close thing. We would have joined the graveyard of prior rocket startups.
中文： 如果第四次发射没有成功，那就完了。我没有剩下的钱了。那是相当接近的事情。我们将加入先前火箭初创公司的墓地。
English: I thought the odds of the fourth launch working were better than 50 percent. There was just a little change in the thrust transient of the first-stage engine we couldn't see on the ground. That made the difference. Fortunately, the fourth SpaceX launch worked.
中文： 我认为第四次发射成功的几率超过 50%。第一级发动机的推力瞬变有一点变化，我们在地面上看不到。那就是区别。幸运的是，第四次 SpaceX 发射成功了。
English: We almost went down as the company that made it to orbit, then died.
中文： 我们差点成为进入轨道然后死掉的公司。
English: When it worked, my cortisol levels were clinically high. I couldn't feel celebratory. There was no jubilation. I was too stressed. Getting to orbit meant, "Okay, we're not going to die today." We'll live a little bit longer. I just felt relief.
中文： 当它成功时，我的皮质醇水平临床高。我无法感到庆祝。没有欢欣鼓舞。我太有压力了。进入轨道意味着，"好吧，我们今天不会死。"我们会活得更久一点。我只是感到解脱。
English: But it was short-lived. We were still in a tough position. It was not like we had customers lined up. Even the fourth launch working wasn't enough to succeed. We also needed a big contract to keep us alive.
中文： 但那是短暂的。我们仍然处于艰难的境地。不像我们有客户排队。即使第四次发射成功也不足以成功。我们还需要一份大合同来维持生存。
LANDING NASA CONTRACTS
获得 NASA 合同
English: After the successful launch, as I was scrambling to fundraise for Tesla in 2008, NASA called out of the blue to tell me SpaceX had won a contract. I couldn't believe it. I screamed, "I LOVE NASA. YOU GUYS ROCK," then hung up. I called our president, Gwynne Shotwell, and told her to immediately sign whatever deal NASA offered.
中文： 成功发射后，当我在 2008 年为特斯拉筹款时，NASA 突然打电话告诉我 SpaceX 赢得了一份合同。我不敢相信。我尖叫道，"我爱 NASA。你们太棒了，"然后挂断了电话。我打电话给我们的总裁格温·肖特韦尔，告诉她立即签署 NASA 提供的任何协议。
English: It felt like I had been blindfolded and taken out to the firing squad. Then they yelled, "Fire" and the guns just went "click." No bullets. Then they let me free. Sure, I was glad to be alive. But I was still pretty fucking nervous.
中文： 感觉就像我被蒙上眼睛，被带到行刑队。然后他们喊道，"开火"，枪只是"咔嗒"一声。没有子弹。然后他们让我自由。当然，我很高兴还活着。但我仍然他妈的很紧张。
English: My estimate of success was not far off. We just made it by the skin of our teeth.
中文： 我对成功的估计相差不远。我们只是勉强成功。
English: We had developed the Dragon spacecraft somewhat opportunistically. NASA announced they were going to retire the space shuttle, and they didn't have the budget to develop a new vehicle with cargo transport capability to the space station. They put it out to bid for the first time in NASA history. It was quite a big step, and we were lucky enough to win one of those contracts. Then, the other company wasn't able to execute, and SpaceX ended up being the primary means of transporting cargo to and from the space station.
中文： 我们在某种程度上机会主义地开发了龙飞船。NASA 宣布他们将退役航天飞机，他们没有预算开发具有货运能力的新航天器到空间站。他们在 NASA 历史上首次公开招标。这是相当大的一步，我们足够幸运赢得了其中一份合同。然后，另一家公司无法执行，SpaceX 最终成为向空间站运输货物的主要手段。
English: Our rocket ended up costing around $6 million, super low compared to other rockets in that class, which were about $25 million. We're about a quarter of the price of Boeing or Lockheed. Once it was reusable, payload delivery could be two orders of magnitude cheaper.
中文： 我们的火箭最终花费约 600 万美元，与该级别的其他火箭相比超低，那些火箭约为 2500 万美元。我们大约是波音或洛克希德价格的四分之一。一旦可重复使用，有效载荷交付可以便宜两个数量级。
English: After we did the first two space station resupply missions, which thankfully both worked, NASA said, "What about astronaut transport?" They put out a big competition and awarded two contracts for astronaut transport, one to Boeing and one to SpaceX. Now, we transport astronauts to and from the space station.
中文： 在我们完成了前两次空间站补给任务后，谢天谢地都成功了，NASA 说，"宇航员运输呢？"他们进行了一场大竞赛，并授予了两份宇航员运输合同，一份给波音，一份给 SpaceX。现在，我们运送宇航员往返空间站。
YOU HAVE TO BLOW THINGS UP
你必须炸毁东西
English: The first goal is to make the damn thing work—we'll optimize it later.
中文： 第一个目标是让该死的东西工作——我们稍后会优化它。
English: We want to push the envelope. If you don't push the envelope, you cannot achieve the goal of a fully and rapidly reusable rocket with high payload. It's not possible. You have to go close to the edge on margins.
中文： 我们想挑战极限。如果你不挑战极限，你就无法实现具有高有效载荷的完全快速可重复使用火箭的目标。这是不可能的。你必须在利润上接近边缘。
English: We intentionally iterate the design of the Starship at SpaceX rapidly. This is a fundamentally different optimization for Starship versus a polar extreme like our Dragon capsule. Since Dragon now carries crew, there can be no failures, ever. Everything's going to be tested. There can never be a failure, ever, for any reason whatsoever. With human crew in a developed vehicle, we're in extreme conservatism mode.
中文： 我们有意在 SpaceX 快速迭代星舰的设计。这与像我们的龙飞船这样的极端情况有着根本不同的优化。由于龙飞船现在载有船员，永远不能有故障。一切都将经过测试。永远不能有任何原因的故障。有了载人飞船，我们处于极端保守模式。
English: Falcon is a little less conservative. It is possible for us to have, say, a failure with a booster on landing. That's not the end of the world. Early Starship models were the polar opposite of Dragon. We were iterating rapidly to learn.
中文： 猎鹰稍微不那么保守。我们可能会在着陆时助推器出现故障。那不是世界末日。早期的星舰模型与龙飞船截然相反。我们快速迭代以学习。
English: Q: Is that different from other space programs?
中文： 问：这与其他太空项目不同吗？
English: NASA's space shuttle had almost no iteration because there were people on board. You can't be blowing up shuttles. That lack of iteration was a problem. There were a lot of issues they were aware of, but people were too afraid to make changes to a design that had already worked. There was risk-reward asymmetry. If you make a change and something goes wrong, big punishment. If you make a change and it goes right, small reward.
中文： NASA 的航天飞机几乎没有迭代，因为上面有人。你不能炸毁航天飞机。缺乏迭代是个问题。他们意识到很多问题，但人们太害怕对已经有效的设计进行更改。存在风险回报不对称。如果你做出改变而出错，大惩罚。如果你做出改变而成功，小奖励。
English: They had seen the issues with the O-ring and the insulation coming off and hitting the wing before, but there had not been a catastrophe. They figured it was good enough because it worked before. But that's like Russian roulette: "Look, I've pulled the trigger and I'm fine."
中文： 他们以前见过 O 形圈和绝缘材料脱落并撞击机翼的问题，但没有发生灾难。他们认为这足够好，因为它以前有效。但这就像俄罗斯轮盘赌："看，我扣动了扳机，我没事。"
English: It's hard to iterate when people are on board every mission. Starship does not have anyone on board during early trials so we can blow things up, learn, and iterate. That's really helpful. To improve safety, you need to fly a lot and have a lot of redundancy. So if you lose an engine on the booster, it doesn't matter. Even losing multiple engines shouldn't matter.
中文： 当每次任务都有人 aboard 时很难迭代。星舰在早期试验期间没有人 aboard，所以我们可以炸毁东西，学习，并迭代。这真的很有帮助。为了提高安全性，你需要大量飞行并有很多冗余。所以如果你在助推器上失去一个引擎，没关系。即使失去多个引擎也不应该有关系。
English: We don't want to design to eliminate every risk. Otherwise, we will never get anywhere.
中文： 我们不想设计消除每一个风险。否则，我们永远不会到达任何地方。
English: Before every Starship launch, we go through the list of risks we predict, which we call the "risk list." If you look at various reasons why we blew up, none of the reasons they blew up were on our "risk list." There's a crazy amount of new technology, all evolving simultaneously. We need time and trials to iron out the unknown unknowns.
中文： 在每次星舰发射之前，我们会查看我们预测的风险列表，我们称之为"风险列表"。如果你看看我们爆炸的各种原因，他们爆炸的原因都不在我们的"风险列表"上。有大量的新技术，都在同时演变。我们需要时间和试验来解决未知的未知。
English: Q: What is the big-picture vision SpaceX is iterating toward?
中文： 问：SpaceX 迭代的大局愿景是什么？
English: The overarching optimization is: "What is the fastest time to a city on Mars?" Then subset → fastest time to a fully usable rocket. And subset → fastest time to orbit.
中文： 总体优化是："到火星城市的最快时间是什么？"然后子集→完全可用火箭的最快时间。然后子集→进入轨道的最快时间。
English: Initial production was simply a learning exercise. None of the initial designs will be long term. We're just trying to learn in the shortest period of time. The early Starship assembly yard looked like a garage shop, to be frank. It's weird—we have superadvanced technology being built in a tent in a parking lot. Early versions of Starship didn't even have doors. We didn't need doors. We did need to be superfocused on getting to orbit. Then superfocused on getting the ship back. Doors were just unnecessary complexity. The first ten ships (or more) we won't get back from orbit. We probably won't be flying them again. Maybe once or twice—if we're lucky.
中文： 最初的生产只是一个学习练习。任何初始设计都不会是长期的。我们只是试图在最短的时间内学习。早期的星舰装配场看起来像一个车库店，坦率地说。这很奇怪——我们有超级先进的技术在一个停车场的帐篷里建造。早期版本的星舰甚至没有门。我们不需要门。我们确实需要超级专注于进入轨道。然后超级专注于让飞船回来。门只是不必要的复杂性。前十艘船（或更多）我们不会从轨道返回。我们可能不会再飞它们。也许一两次——如果我们幸运的话。
English: Eliminate what isn't necessary to solve the key problem.
中文： 消除解决关键问题不必要的内容。
BUILDING THE JUST BARELY POSSIBLE
建造勉强可能的东西
English: I was told many times rocket reusability was impossible.
中文： 我多次被告知火箭可重复使用是不可能的。
English: One of the hardest engineering problems known to man is making a reusable orbital rocket.
中文： 人类已知的最困难的工程问题之一是制造可重复使用的轨道火箭。
English: We have reusability in bicycles, cars, and airplanes. It's bizarre to not have reusability in another form of transport. It would be insane to chuck a boat away after every trip. Getting one trip every four days would not cut it in a car. But this is how rockets have worked thus far.
中文： 我们在自行车、汽车和飞机上有可重复使用性。在另一种交通工具中没有可重复使用性是很奇怪的。每次旅行后扔掉一艘船是疯狂的。每四天一次旅行在汽车中行不通。但这就是火箭迄今为止的工作方式。
English: The design goal is immediate reflight. Refill propellants and go again, just like any other mode of transport. This is gigantic.
中文： 设计目标是立即再次飞行。重新填充推进剂并再次出发，就像任何其他交通工具一样。这是巨大的。
English: Getting to orbit was solved in the 1950s. The math clearly demonstrates there is no point in another expendable rocket; you have to achieve reusability.
中文： 进入轨道在 1950 年代就解决了。数学清楚地表明，另一枚一次性火箭没有意义；你必须实现可重复使用性。
English: It's not like other rocket scientists were huge idiots who wanted to throw their rockets away all the time. It's hard to make something like this. Nobody has ever succeeded, and for a good reason. Earth's gravity is heavy. On Mars this would be no problem. Moon, piece of cake. On Earth, fucking hard. Just barely possible.
中文： 这不是说其他火箭科学家是想要一直扔掉火箭的巨大白痴。制造这样的东西很难。没有人成功过，这是有充分理由的。地球的重力很重。在火星上这不成问题。月球，小菜一碟。在地球上，他妈的难。只是勉强可能。
English: A fully reusable orbital system would be one of the biggest breakthroughs in the history of humanity. That's why it hurts my brain. We're just a bunch of monkeys. How did we even get this far? It beats me. We were swinging through the trees eating bananas not long ago.
中文： 完全可重复使用的轨道系统将是人类历史上最大的突破之一。这就是为什么它让我头疼。我们只是一群猴子。我们是怎么走到这一步的？这难倒我了。不久前我们还在树林里荡秋千吃香蕉。
English: Can you imagine if human civilization continued at the current pace of technological advancement for another million years? Where would we be?
中文： 你能想象如果人类文明以当前的技术进步速度再持续一百万年吗？我们会在哪里？
English: I told my team, "Imagine there was a pallet of cash plummeting through the atmosphere and it was going to burn up and smash into tiny pieces. Would you try to save it? You probably would."
中文： 我告诉我的团队，"想象有一托盘现金穿过大气层坠落，它将燃烧并粉碎成小块。你会试图拯救它吗？你可能会。"
English: When people tried to make a reusable system before, they would conclude success was not one of the possible outcomes. In government programs, of course, the program would still continue for quite some time. It's funny but it's true.
中文： 当人们以前试图制造可重复使用系统时，他们会得出结论成功不是可能的结果之一。在政府项目中，当然，项目仍会继续相当长的时间。这很有趣但这是真的。
English: The space shuttle attempted some level of reusability, but it ended up costing more per flight than an expendable vehicle of equivalent capability. For a long time, people pointed to the space shuttle as an example of why attempting reusability was dumb. But you can't take a single example and make an entire theory out of it.
中文： 航天飞机尝试了某种程度的可重复使用性，但最终每次飞行的成本比同等能力的一次性飞行器更高。很长一段时间，人们以航天飞机为例说明为什么尝试可重复使用性是愚蠢的。但你不能拿一个例子并从中得出整个理论。
English: I wasn't sure if it was possible when we started SpaceX, but after a few years of work I became convinced. Full and rapid reuse is possible. It is possible to make this work, and that gave me hope. Of course, just because something is possible does not mean it will occur.
中文： 当我们创办 SpaceX 时，我不确定这是否可能，但经过几年的工作后，我确信了。完全快速可重复使用是可能的。这是可能实现的，这给了我希望。当然，仅仅因为某事可能并不意味着它会发生。
English: The first step is to establish that something is possible, then the probability it will occur. In no prior design was full reusability one of the possible outcomes.
中文： 第一步是确定某事是可能的，然后是它发生的概率。在以前的任何设计中，完全可重复使用性都不是可能的结果之一。
English: SpaceX's Falcon 9 was the first rocket with any reusability. We bring the boosters back and refly them. Only the upper stage is expended. Falcon 9 is not rapidly reusable because most boosters land on a ship in the ocean. It takes a while to bring it back, fuel, and reuse it. Falcon 9 first had reusability measured in months, then weeks, and now finally days. But, the efficiency is limited. We can't bring it lower than several days.
中文： SpaceX 的猎鹰 9 号是第一枚具有任何可重复使用性的火箭。我们将助推器带回并重新飞行它们。只有上面级是一次性的。猎鹰 9 号不是快速可重复使用的，因为大多数助推器降落在海洋中的一艘船上。需要一段时间才能把它带回来，加油，并重新使用它。猎鹰 9 号最初的可重复使用性以月为单位，然后是周，现在终于到天。但是，效率是有限的。我们不能把它降到几天以下。
English: Knock on wood, Falcon 9 is the most reliable rocket in the world and launches about every two to three days. Every one has come home safely, which is the most important thing. We learned a tremendous amount from the Falcon program that fed into the Starship program. We wouldn't have been able to make Starship without the benefit of Falcon 9.
中文： 敲木头，猎鹰 9 号是世界上最可靠的火箭，大约每两到三天发射一次。每一个都安全回家，这是最重要的事情。我们从猎鹰项目中学到了大量知识，这些知识进入了星舰项目。如果没有猎鹰 9 号的好处，我们将无法制造星舰。
English: Nobody thought this was possible. But we're not breaking any laws of physics, so we knew it was possible.
中文： 没有人认为这是可能的。但我们没有违反任何物理定律，所以我们知道这是可能的。
English: Starship is the largest flying object of any kind. It's five thousand tons at liftoff, much heavier than any other aircraft, ever. The body diameter is nine meters (roughly fifty feet). It will get taller with newer versions too. And it's going straight up; aircraft don't go straight up. It's an insanely gigantic thing, twice the size of Saturn V, previously the largest rocket ever built.
中文： 星舰是任何种类的最大飞行物。它在起飞时重达五千吨，比以往任何飞机都重得多。主体直径为九米（约 50 英尺）。它也会随着新版本变得更高。它是直着向上的；飞机不会直着向上。这是一个疯狂巨大的东西，是土星 V 的两倍大，土星 V 以前是建造过的最大火箭。
English: There could be other solutions too, but this will work. The first order of business was to get one that works. Now we optimize. Full and rapid reusability will work. It's just a question of how many attempts we need to make it work, and then make it work really well.
中文： 可能还有其他解决方案，但这个会有效。首要任务是得到一个有效的。现在我们优化。完全快速可重复使用将有效。这只是我们需要多少次尝试才能让它工作，然后让它工作得非常好的问题。
English: It has to be true reuse, which means rapid and complete reuse. The problem with the space shuttle was only a portion of the system came back, and the reusable parts were incredibly difficult to refurbish. Reuse matters more if it's rapid and complete—if the only thing we do between flights is maintenance and refuel, like an airplane.
中文： 它必须是真正的重复使用，这意味着快速和完全的重复使用。航天飞机的问题是只有系统的一部分回来，可重复使用的部件非常难以翻新。如果快速和完全，重复使用更重要——如果我们在飞行之间唯一做的事情是维护和加油，就像飞机一样。
English: If there is no major work required between flights, then the cost of a flight approaches the cost of propellant. Nearly 80 percent of Starship's propellant is liquid oxygen, and a little over 20 percent methane, which are both very low-cost fuels. The fuel cost of a flight is maybe a million dollars or less.
中文： 如果飞行之间不需要主要工作，那么飞行成本接近推进剂成本。星舰的推进剂近 80% 是液氧，略超过 20% 是甲烷，两者都是成本非常低的燃料。一次飞行的燃料成本可能是一百万美元或更少。
English: Full and rapid reusability is the holy grail of rocketry because then you're only constrained by propellant costs.
中文： 完全快速可重复使用是火箭学的圣杯，因为那样你只受推进剂成本的限制。
English: Q: What made you remove the landing legs?
中文： 问：是什么让你移除着陆腿？
English: We fight to save mass constantly, especially with the reusable upper stage, where nobody has ever succeeded.
中文： 我们不断争取节省质量，特别是对于可重复使用的上面级，那里没有人成功过。
English: Again here, we try to think in the limit of physics. The problem with landing legs is they add mass, we have to protect them during reentry, and we have to get a giant rocket from wherever it landed back onto the launch stand. That's tricky. I was trying to think of the limit. What's the fastest way to achieve reusability?
中文： 再次在这里，我们试图在物理极限内思考。着陆腿的问题是它们增加了质量，我们必须在再入期间保护它们，我们必须将一枚巨大的火箭从它降落的任何地方移回发射台。这很棘手。我试图思考极限。实现可重复使用性的最快方法是什么？
English: It would be to land on the launch stand. Why not just have it land on the arms of the tower it launches from?
中文： 那将是降落在发射台上。为什么不让它降落在它发射的塔的臂上呢？
English: This is the best-case outcome for rapid reuse. It gets caught by the same arms that placed it in the launch ring. In principle, the superheavy booster can be reflown within an hour of landing. It comes back in about five minutes one way and then it gets caught by the tower arms, placed back in the launch mount, and then we refill propellant in about thirty to forty minutes and place a ship on top of it.
中文： 这是快速重复使用的最佳情况结果。它被放置它在发射环中的同一臂抓住。原则上，超重型助推器可以在着陆后一小时内重新飞行。它大约五分钟回来，然后被塔臂抓住，放回发射架，然后我们在大约三十到四十分钟内重新填充推进剂，并在其顶部放置一艘飞船。
English: When we first talked about it, it sounded batshit crazy. To custom-build a giant tower to catch the heaviest flying object ever made with mechanical arms. Pluck it out of the air. But we did it.
中文： 当我们第一次谈论它时，听起来疯狂至极。定制建造一座巨大的塔，用机械臂抓住有史以来最重的飞行物。从空中摘下它。但我们做到了。
English: It's an epic sight: giant robot arms catching a giant rocket. This is much more efficient than having landing legs on the rocket itself.
中文： 这是一个史诗般的景象：巨大的机器人手臂抓住一枚巨大的火箭。这比在火箭本身上有着陆腿要高效得多。
English: I call it rapidly reusable, reliable rockets. RRRR. Space pirates.
中文： 我称之为快速可重复使用、可靠的火箭。RRRR。太空海盗。
OPTIMIZING FOR MASS TO MARS
优化火星质量
English: The thing we optimize for at SpaceX is cost per ton to orbit. When the goal is low cost per ton of payload to orbit, you can't cheat.
中文： 我们在 SpaceX 优化的是每吨进入轨道的成本。当目标是每吨有效载荷进入轨道的低成本时，你不能作弊。
English: All early rockets were a test program. We expected them to explode. It's weird if they don't explode, frankly. To get a lot of payload to orbit at low cost, you have to run everything close to the edge.
中文： 所有早期火箭都是测试项目。我们期望它们爆炸。坦率地说，如果它们不爆炸，那很奇怪。要以低成本将大量有效载荷送入轨道，你必须在边缘附近运行一切。
English: To get a meaningful payload to orbit, scale is important. We need to make things big. There is value to scale here. You don't see everything shipped by small pickup trucks; you see semi trailers. You see giant ocean cargo ships, not a bunch of small boats with outboard motors. Scale has value in itself. For example, the same computer that controls a tiny rocket controls the big rocket. The percentage weight of the electronics is significant in a small rocket but becomes vanishingly small in a big rocket.
中文： 要将有意义的有效载荷送入轨道，规模很重要。我们需要把事情做大。规模在这里有价值。你不会看到所有东西都用小型皮卡车运输；你会看到半挂车。你会看到巨大的海洋货船，而不是一堆带有舷外发动机的小船。规模本身就有价值。例如，控制小型火箭的计算机也控制大型火箭。电子设备在小火箭中的重量百分比很大，但在大火箭中变得微乎其微。
English: The focus is to minimize cost per ton of payload to orbit, the surface of the moon, or Mars. I'll give you a sense of just how much we need to improve it. Right now, the cost per landed ton to the surface of Mars is more than a billion dollars. You can't count the heat shield, parachute, or landing systems—only the useful stuff. In the case of the Mars rovers, it's really just the rover. That is the useful thing. The rover weighs about a ton and costs a billion dollars to get to Mars. So currently it costs roughly a billion dollars per ton to Mars.
中文： 重点是尽量减少每吨有效载荷进入轨道、月球表面或火星的成本。我会让你了解我们需要改进多少。目前，每吨着陆火星表面的成本超过 10 亿美元。你不能计算隔热罩、降落伞或着陆系统——只有有用的东西。在火星车的情况下，真的只是火星车。那是有用的东西。火星车重约一吨，花费 10 亿美元到达火星。所以目前每吨到火星的成本大约是 10 亿美元。
English: To build a self-sustaining city on Mars, that cost will have to be less than one hundred thousand dollars a ton. That would be ten thousand times better than the current state of the art, to put things into perspective.
中文： 要在火星上建立一个自给自足的城市，成本必须低于每吨 10 万美元。这将比当前技术水平好一万倍，以正确看待事物。
English: That's how much improvement is needed. Not a 10,000 percent increase, a 10,000-times increase. That's what Starship is intended to do: be ten thousand times better than the current state of the art. Orders and orders and orders of magnitude better. But, we're not breaking any laws of physics. This is possible.
中文： 这就是需要多少改进。不是 10,000% 的增长，而是 10,000 倍的增长。这就是星舰打算做的：比当前技术水平好一万倍。数量级好得多。但是，我们没有违反任何物理定律。这是可能的。
English: When we started the Starship design it seemed utterly insane. Now it's gone from utterly insane to merely late.
中文： 当我们开始星舰设计时，它看起来完全疯狂。现在它从完全疯狂变成了只是迟到。
English: With full reusability, Starship 3 will cost significantly less per flight than tiny Falcon 1. That's the difference between a fully reusable rocket and an expendable rocket. The fully reusable rocket with low-cost propellant actually costs less than a tiny expendable rocket. By analogy, the cost of flying a 747 is obviously much less than a small airplane that gets thrown away. Falcon 1 gets about half a ton to orbit. The Starship 3 will send four hundred times more payload for less than the cost of a Falcon 1. It's mind-boggling that the giant thing can cost so much less than the small thing.
中文： 有了完全可重复使用性，星舰 3 号的每次飞行成本将显著低于小型猎鹰 1 号。那是完全可重复使用火箭和一次性火箭之间的区别。具有低成本推进剂的完全可重复使用火箭实际上比小型一次性火箭成本更低。类比来说，驾驶 747 的成本显然比被扔掉的小型飞机要少得多。猎鹰 1 号将约半吨送入轨道。星舰 3 号将以低于猎鹰 1 号的成本发送四百倍以上的有效载荷。令人难以置信的是，巨大的东西成本可以比小东西低这么多。
English: A lot of people talk a lot about the number of launches to orbit per year, but this is not really what matters. What really matters is the total useful payload to orbit per year. If these were ocean ships, you'd be comparing a dinghy to a supertanker. They're not the same.
中文： 很多人谈论每年进入轨道的发射次数，但这不是真正重要的。真正重要的是每年进入轨道的总有效载荷。如果这些是海洋船只，你将在比较一艘小艇和一艘超级油轮。它们不一样。
English: There must be things you're excited about, that you're glad to be alive for. For me, this is the most important reason to pursue the establishment of life on Mars.
中文： 必须有你感到兴奋的事情，你很高兴为之活着。对我来说，这是追求在火星上建立生命的最重要原因。
English: There are various "great filters" that have the potential to end civilizations. One of the "great filters" to pass is whether we become a multiplanet species. Will humanity be one of those species that passes the great filter of going beyond one planet?
中文： 有各种"大过滤器"有可能终结文明。要通过的"大过滤器"之一是我们是否成为一个多行星物种。人类会成为那些通过超越一个星球的大过滤器的物种之一吗？
English: To become multiplanetary, the breakthrough we need to create is a rapidly reusable interplanetary transport system. This is right on the edge of impossible.
中文： 要成为多行星的，我们需要创造的突破是一个快速可重复使用的星际运输系统。这正好在不可能边缘。
English: That's the breakthrough SpaceX is really trying to achieve. What we've done so far is good; it's better. But it has been evolutionary—not yet revolutionary. We need the revolutionary thing to work.
中文： 那是 SpaceX 真正试图实现的突破。我们迄今为止所做的很好；它更好。但它一直是进化的——还不是革命性的。我们需要革命性的东西起作用。
PART IV: ON BEHALF OF HUMANITY
第四部分：为了人类
English: There is something special—far more rewarding than money—about working with an epic team to make breakthroughs.
中文： 与一个史诗般的团队合作取得突破有一些特别的东西——远比金钱更有回报。